Gilt Week Ahead

GiltWeekAhead06072020.pdf

The highlight of the week ahead will be Chancellor Rishi Sunak's speech on Wednesday. He is due to deliver the summer economic update – an event which has been scaled down somewhat from the originally mooted summer budget but is still seen as a significant event (so much so that the linker auction scheduled for Wednesday has been moved to Thursday instead). The statement is expected to focus on employment and training. However some of the bigger policies that could be announced include a time limited cut to VAT (sales tax), cuts to stamp duty (tax on house purchases) and more money for the NHS. However, most of the commentary has suggested that most of the big measures may be delayed until the Autumn Budget so that the government can assess the state of the economy over the summer before acting.

Other than the Chancellor's speech, the calendar is fairly sparse for the UK this week. There is only one MPC member scheduled to speak (Andy Haldane on Tuesday evening) and the economic data calendar see no tier one releases.

The following week sees events pick up again with the release of the OBR Fiscal Sustainability Report on Tuesday 14 July followed by a further update to the gilt remit on Thursday 16 July. The remit update will cover the period to the end of November. Next week will also see a slew of significant data including monthly GDP and its components, inflation and labour market data.

Auction previews for the week ahead are in the PDF document.

For the full document click here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/GiltWeekAhead06072020.pdf

This product contains everything that you need to know about net supply in the gilt market in a concise document including:

• Cash flow and QE trackers with estimates of net issuance in the months ahead.
• A table of all gilts in issue, with the amount outstanding and BoE/Treasury holdings.
• The issuance calendar for 2019/20 and 2020/21 with MNI expectations for each auction.
• Other key significant dates including next BoE APF purchase dates.
• Cash flow matrix showing upcoming issuance, coupon and redemption payments.
• Month-by-month issuance tables for 2020/21, 2019/20 and 2018/19.

We will release an updated version of the product every week