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GILTS: Bid Alongside Peers

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Bulls push gilt futures through Friday’s high (94.94 highs vs. Friday’s peak at 94.90), before the contract eases back to 94.85.

  • U.S. Tsy Secretary nominee Bessent’s policy preferences deemed not as inflationary vs. those held by some of the former contenders for the role, so that is being priced into global FI markets this morning.
  • Fresh extension higher in futures would target round number resistance (95.00) followed by the 50-day EMA (95.78 today). A break of the latter would increase the threat to the bearish technical picture.
  • Yields 2-3bp lower across the curve, with 10s nearing 4.350%, a level that has not been registered since October 31. The benchmark topped out at 4.594% on November 6, in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory.
  • Next level of note there comes in at the October 29 high (4.317%).
  • SONIA futures underpinned alongside the rally in gilts, just off early session highs, last flat to +4.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS largely in line with levels we flagged in our pre-gilt open STIR bullet, showing ~78bp of cuts through Dec ’25.
  • Comments from BoE’s Lombardelli and dovish dissenter Dhingra are scheduled today, we will provide further colour on those 2 appearances in due course.
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Bulls push gilt futures through Friday’s high (94.94 highs vs. Friday’s peak at 94.90), before the contract eases back to 94.85.

  • U.S. Tsy Secretary nominee Bessent’s policy preferences deemed not as inflationary vs. those held by some of the former contenders for the role, so that is being priced into global FI markets this morning.
  • Fresh extension higher in futures would target round number resistance (95.00) followed by the 50-day EMA (95.78 today). A break of the latter would increase the threat to the bearish technical picture.
  • Yields 2-3bp lower across the curve, with 10s nearing 4.350%, a level that has not been registered since October 31. The benchmark topped out at 4.594% on November 6, in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory.
  • Next level of note there comes in at the October 29 high (4.317%).
  • SONIA futures underpinned alongside the rally in gilts, just off early session highs, last flat to +4.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS largely in line with levels we flagged in our pre-gilt open STIR bullet, showing ~78bp of cuts through Dec ’25.
  • Comments from BoE’s Lombardelli and dovish dissenter Dhingra are scheduled today, we will provide further colour on those 2 appearances in due course.