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GILTS: Early Bid Fades, Yesterday's Low In Futures Holds

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Gilts have pulled back from session highs as equity benchmarks find an intraday base.

  • Chinese policymakers aided the rally in early London trade, with many left disappointed as no fresh stimulus was delivered at a policymaker press conference.
  • The recent bearish impetus has since reasserted itself.
  • Futures -1 at 96.35, with yesterday’s low (96.32) holding for now.
  • The technical downtrend remains intact, with yesterday’s low protecting the 1.00 projection of the Sep 17-30-Oct 1 price swing (96.23).
  • Bulls need to break the highs of the last couple of sessions (96.93/98.14) to start turning the technical tide more in their favour.
  • Yields now little changed to 1bp higher, steepening at the margin after yesterday’s bear flattening.
  • 10-year yields closed above the downtrend line drawn off the October ’23 high, retesting yesterday’s high in recent trade. A fresh extension would target the July 1 high (4.286%).
  • 10s little changed vs. Bunds after the spread closed at fresh cycle wides yesterday.
  • I/L supply was digested smoothly.
  • GBP STIRs unwind initial dovish moves.
  • SONIA futures back to near unchanged levels.
  • BoE-dated OIS pricing 22bp of cuts for Nov, 35.5bp of cuts through Dec and 93bp of cuts through June, also little changed on the day.
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Gilts have pulled back from session highs as equity benchmarks find an intraday base.

  • Chinese policymakers aided the rally in early London trade, with many left disappointed as no fresh stimulus was delivered at a policymaker press conference.
  • The recent bearish impetus has since reasserted itself.
  • Futures -1 at 96.35, with yesterday’s low (96.32) holding for now.
  • The technical downtrend remains intact, with yesterday’s low protecting the 1.00 projection of the Sep 17-30-Oct 1 price swing (96.23).
  • Bulls need to break the highs of the last couple of sessions (96.93/98.14) to start turning the technical tide more in their favour.
  • Yields now little changed to 1bp higher, steepening at the margin after yesterday’s bear flattening.
  • 10-year yields closed above the downtrend line drawn off the October ’23 high, retesting yesterday’s high in recent trade. A fresh extension would target the July 1 high (4.286%).
  • 10s little changed vs. Bunds after the spread closed at fresh cycle wides yesterday.
  • I/L supply was digested smoothly.
  • GBP STIRs unwind initial dovish moves.
  • SONIA futures back to near unchanged levels.
  • BoE-dated OIS pricing 22bp of cuts for Nov, 35.5bp of cuts through Dec and 93bp of cuts through June, also little changed on the day.