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Free AccessGILTS: Early Sell Off Extends Alongside Reduction In Pricing Of BoE Cuts
The early sell off in gilts has extended a little further.
- UK CPI data was in line with expectations, with the subsequent sell off a product of the recent build-up of long positioning.
- Although the technical set up remains bullish, bears have broken initial support in futures (100.64), last trading 100.58.
- An extension lower would target the Sep 10 low (99.83).
- Yields are 3-6bp higher across the curve, bear flattening as GBP STIRs see a hawkish adjustment.
- BoE-dated OIS now price ~2bp of cuts for this week and ~47bp of cuts through year end vs. ~4.5bp and ~50.5bp late yesterday.
- SONIA futures 2.0-6.5 lower.
- The latest Fed decision provides the next meaningful input ahead of tomorrow’s BoE decision. An unusually high degree of uncertainty is priced into U.S. STIRs, as the market balances the likelihood of a 25bp of 50bp cut.
- Further out, the BoE is expected to leave bank rate unchanged tomorrow. In that case, GBP STIRs are set to look to the vote split and any accompanying guidance. Our macro team has identified a baseline of 2 MPC members voting for a cut.
- Gilts will also have to react to any alterations to the BoE’s QT scheme. Consensus looks for a GBP100bln stock reduction, while we look for a slightly more aggressive GBP110bln.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.