MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov CGPI Rises 3.7% Y/Y, Import Prices Drop

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

GILTS: Following Tsys Lower After U.S. Data

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Gilts also sell off after U.S. retail sales data, with firmer equities and oil markets providing additional factors.

  • The data failed to provide a fresh dovish catalyst, leading to an unwind of some of the dovish Fed pricing/positioning that had built up in recent days.
  • Futures back below 101.00 after a brief and limited move above initial resistance (101.51) earlier today.
  • Still, the bullish technical theme in the contract remains intact, with initial support at the Sep 10 high (100.64).
  • Yields 1-5bp higher, curve bear flattens.
  • Key support in 10-Year yields (early Feb low) held.
  • UK CPI data will be released early tomorrow (07:00 London).
  • Our macro team notes that services CPI will be higher than last month. The extent of the uptick will likely be determined by accommodation prices. However, the MPC will likely look through any surprises, unless an unanticipated driver comes to the fore.
  • Our full preview of that release is here.
  • Given the above, we would suggest that spill over from tomorrow’s FOMC decision will likely have greater impact on gilts than the domestic CPI release, given the unusually balanced pricing (between a 25 & 50bp cut) heading into the U.S. central bank’s decision.
189 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Gilts also sell off after U.S. retail sales data, with firmer equities and oil markets providing additional factors.

  • The data failed to provide a fresh dovish catalyst, leading to an unwind of some of the dovish Fed pricing/positioning that had built up in recent days.
  • Futures back below 101.00 after a brief and limited move above initial resistance (101.51) earlier today.
  • Still, the bullish technical theme in the contract remains intact, with initial support at the Sep 10 high (100.64).
  • Yields 1-5bp higher, curve bear flattens.
  • Key support in 10-Year yields (early Feb low) held.
  • UK CPI data will be released early tomorrow (07:00 London).
  • Our macro team notes that services CPI will be higher than last month. The extent of the uptick will likely be determined by accommodation prices. However, the MPC will likely look through any surprises, unless an unanticipated driver comes to the fore.
  • Our full preview of that release is here.
  • Given the above, we would suggest that spill over from tomorrow’s FOMC decision will likely have greater impact on gilts than the domestic CPI release, given the unusually balanced pricing (between a 25 & 50bp cut) heading into the U.S. central bank’s decision.