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GILTS: Holding Lower, Gilt/Bunds Test Cycle Highs, BoE Comments Eyed

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Gilts are lower on the day, taking cues from Tsys since yesterday’s close.

  • Futures -38 at 93.08, 92.97-93.28 session range.
  • The bearish technical trend remains intact.
  • Initial meaningful support and resistance levels located at 92.53/94.73.
  • Yields little changed to 4bp higher, steepening.
  • 2s tested November highs, before fading.
  • 2s10s sticks with the multi-month range in place since mid-Aug benchmark roll, last ~5.6bp.
  • 5s30s 52.2bp after closing at the lowest level since March on Wednesday (49.8bp).
  • 10-Year gilt/Bund spread ~3bp wider at 215.7bp, testing the cycle closing high 215.8bp.
  • Swap spreads tighten again today.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 59bp of cuts through Dec ’25, ~2bp more dovish on the day.
  • Comments from BoE hawk Mann are due later, although she already spoke on Wednesday, so shouldn’t offer much new.
  • The text of Governor Bailey’s Mansion House speech will be released at 18:00 London, ahead of his evening appearance.
  • Coming so soon after the November MPR and press conference it would be unusual for him to provide a notably different tone on monetary policy.
  • Chancellor Reeves will also speak at that event. Reeves has already outlined her intention to alter the UK pension landscape, in a bid to boost private investment and generate economic growth.
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Gilts are lower on the day, taking cues from Tsys since yesterday’s close.

  • Futures -38 at 93.08, 92.97-93.28 session range.
  • The bearish technical trend remains intact.
  • Initial meaningful support and resistance levels located at 92.53/94.73.
  • Yields little changed to 4bp higher, steepening.
  • 2s tested November highs, before fading.
  • 2s10s sticks with the multi-month range in place since mid-Aug benchmark roll, last ~5.6bp.
  • 5s30s 52.2bp after closing at the lowest level since March on Wednesday (49.8bp).
  • 10-Year gilt/Bund spread ~3bp wider at 215.7bp, testing the cycle closing high 215.8bp.
  • Swap spreads tighten again today.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices 59bp of cuts through Dec ’25, ~2bp more dovish on the day.
  • Comments from BoE hawk Mann are due later, although she already spoke on Wednesday, so shouldn’t offer much new.
  • The text of Governor Bailey’s Mansion House speech will be released at 18:00 London, ahead of his evening appearance.
  • Coming so soon after the November MPR and press conference it would be unusual for him to provide a notably different tone on monetary policy.
  • Chancellor Reeves will also speak at that event. Reeves has already outlined her intention to alter the UK pension landscape, in a bid to boost private investment and generate economic growth.