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GILTS: ING: 10Y Gilt Yields Should Revert Below USTs, Eventually

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

ING note that “10-Year gilt yields seem too high and should revert to around 4% by mid-2025, below our U.S. Tsy target of 5%.”

  • They point to overreaction to the Budget announcement, a10-Year swap spread that is already pricing in higher issuance and sensitivity to U.S. Tsys as key drivers of the recent move.
  • Although they concede that “a lack of near-term catalysts, means that a recalibration lower may take until early 2025.”
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ING note that “10-Year gilt yields seem too high and should revert to around 4% by mid-2025, below our U.S. Tsy target of 5%.”

  • They point to overreaction to the Budget announcement, a10-Year swap spread that is already pricing in higher issuance and sensitivity to U.S. Tsys as key drivers of the recent move.
  • Although they concede that “a lack of near-term catalysts, means that a recalibration lower may take until early 2025.”