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Gilts lead the way ahead of US CPI

BONDS
  • Gilts have been leading the rally today, continuing their moves higher as the market continues to take favour from the BOE accepting all offers submitted in yesterday's long-dated purchase operation. 10y gilt yields are 14bp lower on the day while the curve has flattened with 30-year yields down almost 20bp on the day at the time of writing.
  • EGBs (particularly BTPs) have also moved higher today.
  • The focus is now quickly shifting to US CPI at 13:30BST / 8:30ET. Core CPI inflation is seen slowing only moderately to 0.4% M/M after the surprise jump to 0.57% in August, and with analysts seeing some upside risk. An extremely large miss is required to knock the Fed off course from a fourth 75bp hike on Nov 2 (74bp priced). There are greater implications for Dec and Feb meetings, which currently show a broad scaling back to 50bp and 25bp hikes, along with current pricing of a rate cut in 2H23. For the full MNI US CPI preview see here.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-3+ today at 111-12 with 10y UST yields up 1.1bp at 3.908% and 2y yields up 1.9bp at 4.311%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.84 today at 136.68 with 10y Bund yields down -2.2bp at 2.287% and Schatz yields up 2.8bp at 1.832%.
  • Gilt futures are up 2.00 today at 939.97 with 10y yields down -13.9bp at 4.289% and 2y yields down -9.0bp at 3.867%.
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