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Free AccessGilts lead the way ahead of US CPI
- Gilts have been leading the rally today, continuing their moves higher as the market continues to take favour from the BOE accepting all offers submitted in yesterday's long-dated purchase operation. 10y gilt yields are 14bp lower on the day while the curve has flattened with 30-year yields down almost 20bp on the day at the time of writing.
- EGBs (particularly BTPs) have also moved higher today.
- The focus is now quickly shifting to US CPI at 13:30BST / 8:30ET. Core CPI inflation is seen slowing only moderately to 0.4% M/M after the surprise jump to 0.57% in August, and with analysts seeing some upside risk. An extremely large miss is required to knock the Fed off course from a fourth 75bp hike on Nov 2 (74bp priced). There are greater implications for Dec and Feb meetings, which currently show a broad scaling back to 50bp and 25bp hikes, along with current pricing of a rate cut in 2H23. For the full MNI US CPI preview see here.
- TY1 futures are down -0-3+ today at 111-12 with 10y UST yields up 1.1bp at 3.908% and 2y yields up 1.9bp at 4.311%.
- Bund futures are up 0.84 today at 136.68 with 10y Bund yields down -2.2bp at 2.287% and Schatz yields up 2.8bp at 1.832%.
- Gilt futures are up 2.00 today at 939.97 with 10y yields down -13.9bp at 4.289% and 2y yields down -9.0bp at 3.867%.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.