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GILT SUMMARY: Gilts look set to close modestly higher following choppy 2-way
flow that saw Gilt as at one point reverse morning gains, only to recover in
last hour of trading. Volumes were low though which exacerbated the moves.
- 2-yr Gilt yield is -1.5bp at 0.444%, 5-yr -2.3bp at 0.779%, 10-yr -2.0bp at
1.362% and 30-yr -1.7bp at 1.920% according to Tradeweb.
- Gilts opened around 15bp lower across the curve and then edged higher despite
comments from BoE Carney that if the economy continues on its current path "in
the relatively near-term you can expect interest rates will increase somewhat".
- Big move higher was reserved for final Q2 GDP data that showed economy grew at
0.3% q/q, however yoy figure was revised down to 1.5% from 1.7%, while index of
service dropped 0.2% in July. Bright spot was the rise in business investment.
- Gilts slipped from highs though, weighed by 1k Gilt sell block and faded
further as US trader got to their desks. Strong MNI Chicago report and news of
Kevin Warsh being considered for Fed Chair pushed Gilts to session lows.
- Late buying and then saw gilts recover about half of intra-day gains.
- 5-yr breakevens are 1bp tighter while 10-yr swaps spreads are 1.5bp wider