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GILTS: Lower, Cues From Peers & Fiscal Speculation Eyed

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Gilts lower at the open, following cues from core global FI peers.

  • The latest round of fiscal speculation, pointing to a modest lift in CGT on share sales, while indicating an avoidance of a CGT hike on second homes, is probably marginally negative for gilts as well (when baseline expectations are factored in).
  • Futures -32 at 97.67.
  • Key near-term resistance at the September 2 low (98.11) was not breached during Wednesday’s rally, bulls still need to break that level to threaten the current bearish cycle.
  • Initial support located at the Oct 15 high (96.97).
  • Yields ~2bp higher across the curve.
  • 4.00% in 2s was not breached yesterday, with that benchmark back to 4.04%.
  • Spill over from macro events is eyed today, with the latest ECB decision (focus on the rhetoric with a 25bp cut widely expected and almost fully priced) and U.S. weekly jobless claims data headlining.
  • Further out, UK retail sales data is due Friday.
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Gilts lower at the open, following cues from core global FI peers.

  • The latest round of fiscal speculation, pointing to a modest lift in CGT on share sales, while indicating an avoidance of a CGT hike on second homes, is probably marginally negative for gilts as well (when baseline expectations are factored in).
  • Futures -32 at 97.67.
  • Key near-term resistance at the September 2 low (98.11) was not breached during Wednesday’s rally, bulls still need to break that level to threaten the current bearish cycle.
  • Initial support located at the Oct 15 high (96.97).
  • Yields ~2bp higher across the curve.
  • 4.00% in 2s was not breached yesterday, with that benchmark back to 4.04%.
  • Spill over from macro events is eyed today, with the latest ECB decision (focus on the rhetoric with a 25bp cut widely expected and almost fully priced) and U.S. weekly jobless claims data headlining.
  • Further out, UK retail sales data is due Friday.