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Gilts moved by European fiscal consolidation talk

GILTS

Gilts are underperforming Treasuries, but with the German curve steepening and the gilt curve flattening, we have seen gilts underperform up to around 7 years, with Bunds underperforming for higher maturities.

  • The moves are driven by news that Europe is considering setting up a joint debt-issuance programme to fund energy and military spending. MNI sources have suggested this could see E200bln of debt issued in an initiative that is led by France. With Germany and the Netherlands, the traditional fiscal hawks among the most reliant on Russian energy imports there is scope for them to agree. This would potentially see inflation not hit such high levels in Europe and hence reduce the risk of stagflation, improving risk conditions globally.
  • SONIA futures have sold off, with Reds moving up to 11 ticks lower and the market moving back to pricing 148bp of hikes by December, 8bp more than priced at yesterday's close.
  • 2y yields up 8.1bp today at 1.243%, 5y yields up 7.9bp at 1.158%, 10y yields up 7.1bp at 1.374%, 30y yields up 5.5bp at 1.553%
  • 2s10s down -0.9bp today at 13.2bp, 10s30s down -1.7bp at 17.8bp

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