GILTS: Off Lows Alongside Peers, Existing November Ranges Intact

Spill over from swings in wider core global FI dominate thus far, with early weakness reversed as the impact of Fed Chair Powell’s late Thursday comments fades.

• Futures last +16 at 93.76, with the rally running out of steam just ahead of 94.00. Session range 93.51-93.98.
• Zooming out, the contract remains comfortably within its November range.
• Bearish technicals remain intact, initial support and resistance levels of note located at 92.53 and 94.73, respectively.
• Yields flat across the curve.
• GDP data was a little softer than expected but didn’t have much tangible impact.
• BoE-dated OIS shows 2bp of cuts for next month, 26bp of easing through March, 44bp of cuts through June and 64bp of cuts through December ’25, comfortably within recent ranges.
• SONIA futures -1.5 to +4.0, strip flattens.
• Goldman Sachs have updated their BoE forecast to 25bp cuts/quarter to a terminal 3.25% in Q226. They note that "risks around our baseline forecast run into both directions." This call change puts them more in line with the median analyst view, after they previously sat at the dovish end of the spectrum.
• Little of note on the UK calendar ahead of the weekend, with next Wednesday’s CPI data set to provide the next key input for markets and BoE policymaking.