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Gilts open higher post-labour market data

GILTS
  • Gilt yields also opening lower this morning following the labour market data (in line with the reaction we saw earlier on STIR) with yields around 1.0-1.2bp lower across the curve in broadly parallel moves (the moves had been a little large immediately after the open).
  • This sees gilts outperforming USTs and to a less extent the German curve this morning.
  • This reaction appears to us to suggest that the market had possibly been wary of an upside surprise to today's wage data (as we also expected) and the fact that we haven't seen that means we are seeing a (very minor) relief rally in gilts and UK STIR.
  • We note that a number of analysts had said in response to yesterday's inflation data that another upside surprise in today's labour market data would call an August cut more into question - we haven't seen that.
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