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GILT SUMMARY: Gilts open lower once again, seen weighed ahead of Bank of England
monetary policy decision and release of MPC minutes, with markets increasingly
pricing in a hawkish meeting and risk of a 6-3 vote for unchanged rates.
- Yields are pretty much uniformly 1.3bp higher across the curve.
- Main event will be the BOE decision and release of MPC minutes. Majority of
banks see the MPC voting 7-2 to leave rates unchanged, however, markets seen
priced for a more hawkish 6-3 vote (with Haldane joining McCafferty and Saunders
in calling for a rate hike) and/or a hawkish tone to the minutes, following the
higher than expected CPI print for August.
- Elsewhere, in a speech last night, Chancellor Hammond said that "Britain will
reject "protectionist" agendas from the EU in favour of "forward-leaning"
proposals when it comes to supervising financial markets after Brexit, but did
acknowledge legitimate concerns that the EU has.
- There has been some decent early flow in front-end of the short sterling strip
with buying in Sep7 offset by selling in both Dec7 and Mar8 contracts.