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Gilts outperform as Fiscal Statement may be delayed

BONDS
  • Gilts are the outperformers today, largely reversing yesterday's moves. There are no clear drivers to the move - possibly that there may be less clarity for the BOE next week as the Fiscal Statement is now very unlikely to be held ahead of the next MPC meeting. This may mean that some MPC members feel less comfortable voting for a larger 75bp hike without having seen how much government spending is likely to increase (although the largest impact will be the energy price plan already announced). The gilt curve has seen 2s10s steepen by 0.5bp but 10s30s are 3.1bp steeper on the day, as the market also focuses on the potential for the large increase in supply following yesterday's energy price announcement.
  • After some early weakness, the German curve is now back to close to flat on the day. Treasuries have moved further from overnight lows.
  • Looking ahead we have speeches from the Fed's Waller and George on the economic outlook as well as Evans speaking.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-4+ today at 116-03+ with 10y UST yields down -4.3bp at 3.276% and 2y yields down -3.1bp at 3.476%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.01 today at 143.52 with 10y Bund yields up 0.1bp at 1.713% and Schatz yields up 0.4bp at 1.317%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.77 today at 105.70 with 10y yields down -7.1bp at 3.073% and 2y yields down -6.3bp at 2.986%.
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