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Gilts Outperform Core EGBs Following Soft UK CPI
Gilts continue to outperform core EGBs following the lower than expected UK CPI print for November.
- Gilt futures are off intraday highs, but remain 71 ticks higher at 102.66 (from a high of 103.08), with 103.12 (2.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing) the first resistance.
- Bunds and OATs lag, each around 35 ticks higher on the day.
- Cash curves bull steepen, with the 10Y Gilt yield trading at the lowest level since April and the 2Y yield the lowest since May.
- UK services inflation, watched closely by the BoE, disinflated to 6.3% Y/Y (vs a split consensus of between 6.5/6.6% in our preview, 6.6% prior and 6.9% in the BoE Nov projections), prompting a dovish reaction in STIR and core FI markets. BoE-dated OIS contracts price over 140bps of cuts through 2024 (vs less than 125bps yesterday).
- Peripheries are mixed, with the BTP/Bund spread 1.3bps wider at 162.8bps (though still around tightest levels since August) and the GGB/Bund spread a touch narrower.
- The remainder of today's UK/EZ data docket is light, with most interest in ECB's Lane at 14:00GMT, speaking on "The Euro Area Outlook".
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.