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Gilts outperform on inflation expectations data

BONDS
  • Gilts are the outperformers this morning, with early weakness being partially reversed following the release of BOE/Ipsos inflation expectations data which showed that 5-year ahead inflation expectations had fallen to 3.1% in August from 3.5% in May (and the survey was conducted way before there was any substantial talk of energy price caps). We think that for members who were on the fence between 50bp and 75bp this data, along with yesterday's spot inflation data will sway a decision towards 50bp.
  • USTs and Bund are both weaker on the day as risk sentiment increases and equity futures move higher.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-9+ today at 114-21+ with 10y UST yields up 3.9bp at 3.444% and 2y yields up 3.4bp at 3.824%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.39 today at 143.24 with 10y Bund yields up 1.8bp at 1.730% and Schatz yields up 3.3bp at 1.437%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.13 today at 105.35 with 10y yields up 0.6bp at 3.135% and 2y yields down -1.6bp at 3.040%.
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