MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 31

MNI China Press Digest Dec 31: PBOC, Panda Bonds, EVs

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MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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GILTS: Rallying Alongside Tsys

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Round number resistance (95.00) in futures pierced as core global FI markets rally during the early NY trade.

  • Little to really drive the market from a headline perspective, with U.S. participants adjusting to Trump nominating Bessent for Tsy Sec the most likely factor in play.
  • Futures as high as 95.13, next resistance not seen until the 50-day EMA (95.78 today).
  • Yields 2-6bp lower, curve flattens.
  • 10s now 4.34%, lowest level seen since October, ~25bp off November highs.
  • Next level of note comes in at the October 29 high (4.317%).
  • Short end generally follows swings in gilts, with BoE’s Lombardelli and dovish dissenter Dhingra failing to provide any fresh, meaningful information.
  • SONIA futures little changed to +6.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS little changed on the day, pricing 2bp of cuts for next month, 21.5bp through January, 61bp through March and 77bp through December ’25, still off early dovish session extremes.
  • Expect macro cues to dominate for the remainder of the day, with little of note on the calendar. 
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Round number resistance (95.00) in futures pierced as core global FI markets rally during the early NY trade.

  • Little to really drive the market from a headline perspective, with U.S. participants adjusting to Trump nominating Bessent for Tsy Sec the most likely factor in play.
  • Futures as high as 95.13, next resistance not seen until the 50-day EMA (95.78 today).
  • Yields 2-6bp lower, curve flattens.
  • 10s now 4.34%, lowest level seen since October, ~25bp off November highs.
  • Next level of note comes in at the October 29 high (4.317%).
  • Short end generally follows swings in gilts, with BoE’s Lombardelli and dovish dissenter Dhingra failing to provide any fresh, meaningful information.
  • SONIA futures little changed to +6.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS little changed on the day, pricing 2bp of cuts for next month, 21.5bp through January, 61bp through March and 77bp through December ’25, still off early dovish session extremes.
  • Expect macro cues to dominate for the remainder of the day, with little of note on the calendar.