MNI BRIEF: China To Support OBOR Via Foreign Exchange Reserves

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, October 18

RPT-MNI POLICY: Weaker Yen Ups Dec Hike Chances But US Vote A Risk

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Challenges Of House And Equity Markets

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Launches CNY300bln Stock Buy-back Facility

MNI BRIEF: China To Approve More Securities Funds - NFRA

MNI: EUROZONE AUG CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT +0.1% M/M, -2.5% Y/Y

MNI: UK SEP RETAIL SALES +0.3% M/M, +3.9% Y/Y

MNI: SWEDEN SEP UNEMPLOYMENT 8.2%

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

GILTS: Recovering From Lows Alongside EGBs

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Some of the early pressure that followed firmer-than-expected UK retail sales data fades, spill over from a recovery from session lows in EGBs helps limit losses.

  • Futures last +1 at 97.50 vs. lows of 97.27.
  • Wednesday’s opening gap higher still isn’t closed, initial support at the Oct 15 high (96.97).
  • Bulls failed to take out key near-term resistance at the September 2 low (98.11) over the past couple of sessions, leaving the bearish technical theme intact.
  • Yields 0.5-2.0bp higher across the curve, steepening. 2s10s and 5s30s within multi-week ranges.
  • Gilts widen by nearly ~3bp vs. Bunds, spread above 190bp after the pullback from cycle highs above 195bp in recent sessions.
  • Shallow early hawkish moves in GBP STIRs fade, dovish moves in ECB pricing factoring in.
  • BoE-dated OIS now prices 24bp of cuts for November, 41bp through November and 114bp through June, flat to 1bp more dovish on the day.
  • SONIA futures +2.0 to -0.5.
  • A reminder that we don’t think the breakdown of today’s retail sales data (computer and telecommunications the main driver of the surprise) really signals any change in strength of the UK consumer and hence see little feedthrough for monetary policy.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar ahead of the weekend, which should leave cross-market spill over and macro news front and centre.
207 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Some of the early pressure that followed firmer-than-expected UK retail sales data fades, spill over from a recovery from session lows in EGBs helps limit losses.

  • Futures last +1 at 97.50 vs. lows of 97.27.
  • Wednesday’s opening gap higher still isn’t closed, initial support at the Oct 15 high (96.97).
  • Bulls failed to take out key near-term resistance at the September 2 low (98.11) over the past couple of sessions, leaving the bearish technical theme intact.
  • Yields 0.5-2.0bp higher across the curve, steepening. 2s10s and 5s30s within multi-week ranges.
  • Gilts widen by nearly ~3bp vs. Bunds, spread above 190bp after the pullback from cycle highs above 195bp in recent sessions.
  • Shallow early hawkish moves in GBP STIRs fade, dovish moves in ECB pricing factoring in.
  • BoE-dated OIS now prices 24bp of cuts for November, 41bp through November and 114bp through June, flat to 1bp more dovish on the day.
  • SONIA futures +2.0 to -0.5.
  • A reminder that we don’t think the breakdown of today’s retail sales data (computer and telecommunications the main driver of the surprise) really signals any change in strength of the UK consumer and hence see little feedthrough for monetary policy.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar ahead of the weekend, which should leave cross-market spill over and macro news front and centre.