October 30, 2024 14:53 GMT
GILTS: Sharp Removal In Pricing Of BoE Rate Cuts In '25 On Budget Details
STIR
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The immediate inflationary impact of today’s fiscal policy choices, coupled with long end weakness linked to the supply outlook, generates hawkish repricing in the GBP short end.
- BoE-dated OIS now prices 21bp of cuts for November, 31.5bp of cuts through year-end and 82bp of cuts through June.
- That compares to 23bp, 39.5bp and 105bp pre-Budget.
- SONIA futures now 0.5 to 16.5bp lower on the day, contracts as much as 26.0 ticks off intraday highs.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Nov-24
4.742
-20.9
Dec-24
4.635
-31.6
Feb-25
4.456
-49.4
Mar-25
4.332
-61.8
May-25
4.170
-78.0
Jun-25
4.101
-84.9
Aug-25
4.006
-94.4
Sep-25
3.985
-96.5
Nov-25
3.956
-99.4
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