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Gilts the biggest movers after better-than-expected GDP data

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  • Gilts have been the underperformers this morning after monthly GDP data beat expectations and saw Q2 GDP fall 0.1%Q/Q rather than the -0.2% fall pencilled in. This data remains very noisy due to the extra Jubilee holidays but clearly beat expectations - the question now turns to whether July data can also hold up better than expected with the next release coming on Monday 12 September (the week of the next MPC meeting).
  • The German and US curves are both broadly in line with where they were at yesterday's close.
  • The Michigan survey is the main remaining release of the week, with the inflation expectations components the highlight. Ahead of that we will receive US import / export price indices while the Fed's Barkin is due to appear on CNBC at 15:00BST / 10:00ET.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-1 today at 119-04 with 10y UST yields down -0.4bp at 2.885% and 2y yields down -0.9bp at 3.212%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.26 today at 155.25 with 10y Bund yields up 3.1bp at 1.000% and Schatz yields up 2.1bp at 0.572%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.33 today at 116.09 with 10y yields up 4.2bp at 2.099% and 2y yields up 4.3bp at 2.025%.
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  • Gilts have been the underperformers this morning after monthly GDP data beat expectations and saw Q2 GDP fall 0.1%Q/Q rather than the -0.2% fall pencilled in. This data remains very noisy due to the extra Jubilee holidays but clearly beat expectations - the question now turns to whether July data can also hold up better than expected with the next release coming on Monday 12 September (the week of the next MPC meeting).
  • The German and US curves are both broadly in line with where they were at yesterday's close.
  • The Michigan survey is the main remaining release of the week, with the inflation expectations components the highlight. Ahead of that we will receive US import / export price indices while the Fed's Barkin is due to appear on CNBC at 15:00BST / 10:00ET.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-1 today at 119-04 with 10y UST yields down -0.4bp at 2.885% and 2y yields down -0.9bp at 3.212%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.26 today at 155.25 with 10y Bund yields up 3.1bp at 1.000% and Schatz yields up 2.1bp at 0.572%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.33 today at 116.09 with 10y yields up 4.2bp at 2.099% and 2y yields up 4.3bp at 2.025%.