Free Trial

GILTS: Wider, Risk Of Increased Issuance Continues To Weigh

GILTS

Gilts continue to underperform core global peers as markets remain highly sensitive to the risk of increased issuance.

  • While Chancellor Reeves didn’t mention anything ‘new’ to the Sunday Times, the article underscored the risk of increased public investment/higher gilt issuance.
  • Futures -4 at 96.23 vs. lows of 96.20, late Friday rally unwound.
  • Bearish technical cycle intact. Support at the Oct 10 low (95.83), resistance at the Oct 7 high (96.93).
  • Yields 1bp lower to 2bp higher, curve twist steepens.
  • 2s10s hits fresh multi-week highs, 5s30s ~7bp steeper than last Monday’s close,
  • 10s widen by a little over 1bp vs. Bunds, back above 195bp. Last week’s cycle highs present the only point of meaningful interest ahead of 200bp.
  • BoE-dated OIS a touch more hawkish vs. Friday’s closing levels, but little changed on the day/within recent ranges. 22bp of cuts priced through November, 35bp through Dec and 102bp through June.
  • SONIA futures +4.0 to -1.0, off early highs, with the move in gilts limiting the early rally.
  • No comments from BoE’s Dhingra seen.
  • PM Starmer is set to roll out familiar rhetoric re: attracting investment at a summit.
  • Elsewhere, the BoE will sell GBP800mln of short maturity gilts from its APF.
  • This week’s UK calendar will be headlined by the CPI & labour market reports, covered in greater detail in our morning STIR bullet (full preview due later).
215 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Gilts continue to underperform core global peers as markets remain highly sensitive to the risk of increased issuance.

  • While Chancellor Reeves didn’t mention anything ‘new’ to the Sunday Times, the article underscored the risk of increased public investment/higher gilt issuance.
  • Futures -4 at 96.23 vs. lows of 96.20, late Friday rally unwound.
  • Bearish technical cycle intact. Support at the Oct 10 low (95.83), resistance at the Oct 7 high (96.93).
  • Yields 1bp lower to 2bp higher, curve twist steepens.
  • 2s10s hits fresh multi-week highs, 5s30s ~7bp steeper than last Monday’s close,
  • 10s widen by a little over 1bp vs. Bunds, back above 195bp. Last week’s cycle highs present the only point of meaningful interest ahead of 200bp.
  • BoE-dated OIS a touch more hawkish vs. Friday’s closing levels, but little changed on the day/within recent ranges. 22bp of cuts priced through November, 35bp through Dec and 102bp through June.
  • SONIA futures +4.0 to -1.0, off early highs, with the move in gilts limiting the early rally.
  • No comments from BoE’s Dhingra seen.
  • PM Starmer is set to roll out familiar rhetoric re: attracting investment at a summit.
  • Elsewhere, the BoE will sell GBP800mln of short maturity gilts from its APF.
  • This week’s UK calendar will be headlined by the CPI & labour market reports, covered in greater detail in our morning STIR bullet (full preview due later).