Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Today's key data points are the UK labour market data, the Germany ZEW index and the US Empire State manufacturing index in the afternoon, as economies grapple with surging inflation and central banks shift hawkish.
UK wage growth seen slower (0700 GMT)
UK wage growth likely decelerated further in the three months to November with many alert to signs of a cooling jobs market after suggestions of a hiring slowdown over the closing months of 2021. Average weekly earnings eased to a pace of 4.2% from 4.9% in the three months to October, say analysts, extending the precipitous decline from the record-high 8.8% touched in the second quarter.
Excluding bonuses, regular wage growth is expected to fall to an annual pace of 3.8% from 4.3% previously and 7.3% recorded in the June quarter. The decline in earnings growth may not provide much comfort to the Bank of England, as inflation eats into pay pay packets. Real regular wages slumped to an annual pace of just 1.0% in the three months to October, the lowest since August of 2020, raising fears of a looming cost-of-living crisis.
While employment is expected to rise by a healthy 128,000 in the three months to November, after a 149,000 rise in October period, analysts will closely monitor the level of vacancies, which fell by 80,000 between October and November. The LFS unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.
ZEW sentiment seen higher (1000 GMT)
The ZEW expected conditions are forecasted to come in more optimistic for January, recovering to around the pre-pandemic level at 32.0, up from 29.9 in December. The current conditions index dipped into negative at -7.4 in December, the first time since June 2021. The index is expected to slide further to -8.8 in January with analysts seeing current economic conditions as deteriorating.
Supply chain disruptions, surging inflation and the omicron wave of the pandemic continue to exert substantial downwards pressure on the German economy, which is expected to have contracted by as much as 1% in Q4 of 2021.
US Empire State manufacturing softens (1330 GMT)
Analysts are forecasting a dip in the New York's current conditions manufacturing index for January to 25.0 from 31.9 in December. This remains a strong reading above pre-pandemic levels. The December survey saw delivery times continue to lengthen, but also some relief as price indices moderated slightly, despite remaining near recent highs.
The Fed looks ready to begin rate hike cycles in March, following last week’s inflation reading for December hitting an almost 40-year high of 7.0%, albeit easing on the month for the third consecutive reading.
Today sees only one key policymaker appearance - the ECB's Luis de Guindos briefing EU finance ministers at the January ECOFIN meeting.
For an overview of the latest data forecasts click here
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 18/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 18/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 18/01/2022 | - |  | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 18/01/2022 | 1315/0815 | ** |  | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 18/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 18/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 18/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 18/01/2022 | 2100/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.