October 23, 2024 00:50 GMT
GLOBAL: IMF Global Outlook Little Changed But Trend Growth “Mediocre”
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The updated October IMF forecasts showed little change in global aggregates compared to its expectations in both April and July. Global growth is forecast at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025 with the latter revised down 0.1pp, to be in line with the series average. The IMF warns that the 5-year outlook is “mediocre” and that reforms remain “necessary” to lift it, while policy should “ensure a smooth landing” near-term.
Global growth %
Source: MNI - Market News/IMF
- Global trade in goods and services is still projected to improve to 3.1% this year from 0.8% in 2023 before picking up to 3.4% next year but still well below average. DM export growth was revised down slightly to 2.5% and 2.7% respectively, while EM was revised up around 0.5pp to 4.6%.
- DM economic growth is forecast to be steady at 1.8% this year and next with upward revisions to the US, Spain and UK more than offsetting downward ones to Germany, France and Japan relative to July.
- Total EM growth is little changed at 4.2% in 2024 and 2025. The IMF notes that the growth outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have been revised down since April due to disruptions to shipping, especially of oil, conflicts, civil unrest and weather events, while emerging Asia was revised higher.
- Average global inflation was revised 0.1pp lower to 5.8% and 4.3% in 2024 and 2025 respectively down from 6.7% in 2023 helped by both DM and EM. It should moderate to 5% by end-2024 and continue to ease to 3.2% by end-2028. It peaked at 8.8% at end-2022.
Global inflation year-end %
Source: MNI - Market News/IMF
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