Free Trial

GLOBAL MACRO: Inflation Outlook Positive But Food & Metal Prices Trending Higher

GLOBAL MACRO

Global factors have been mixed over September and October, but they are generally likely to put downward pressure on inflation or be neutral going forward, which is good news for central banks as most continue to reduce policy restrictiveness. The stand out though is food prices which rose sharply in September. Metal prices are also higher in October boosted by China stimulus announcements, but they are vulnerable to disappointing growth outcomes.

  • Food prices may add to price pressures with the FAO global index rising 3% m/m in September, the fastest since March 2022. The increase was also broad based and the annual rate is now up 2.1% driven by dairy, meat and oils. While rice prices rose in August and September, they are down in October. 

G20 CPI inflation vs food prices y/y%

Keep reading...Show less
310 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Global factors have been mixed over September and October, but they are generally likely to put downward pressure on inflation or be neutral going forward, which is good news for central banks as most continue to reduce policy restrictiveness. The stand out though is food prices which rose sharply in September. Metal prices are also higher in October boosted by China stimulus announcements, but they are vulnerable to disappointing growth outcomes.

  • Food prices may add to price pressures with the FAO global index rising 3% m/m in September, the fastest since March 2022. The increase was also broad based and the annual rate is now up 2.1% driven by dairy, meat and oils. While rice prices rose in August and September, they are down in October. 

G20 CPI inflation vs food prices y/y%

Keep reading...Show less