Free Trial

MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Taking ADP Seriously For Once?

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Treasury curves twisted flatter Wednesday after a surge in October private ADP jobs gains weighed on rates.
  • Comments from former Fed VC Brainard that Friday’s employment data will likely be lower due to “disruptive hurricanes, strike activity” were quickly discounted as short end rates led the second half sell-off.
  • Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 have cooled vs. earlier levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -23.5bp ( -24.1bp), Dec'24 -42.8bp (-44.8bp), Jan'25 -58.1bp (-61.6bp), Mar'25 -76.0bp (-80.2bp).


MNI US TSYS: October ADP Jobs Gain Surprise Saps Short End Support

Keep reading...Show less
1846 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Treasury curves twisted flatter Wednesday after a surge in October private ADP jobs gains weighed on rates.
  • Comments from former Fed VC Brainard that Friday’s employment data will likely be lower due to “disruptive hurricanes, strike activity” were quickly discounted as short end rates led the second half sell-off.
  • Current projected rate cuts into early 2025 have cooled vs. earlier levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -23.5bp ( -24.1bp), Dec'24 -42.8bp (-44.8bp), Jan'25 -58.1bp (-61.6bp), Mar'25 -76.0bp (-80.2bp).


MNI US TSYS: October ADP Jobs Gain Surprise Saps Short End Support

Keep reading...Show less