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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday’s data schedule has multiple market-moving events due including UK labour data and German final CPI and the ZEW survey in the morning, followed by the US March inflation print in the afternoon.
UK Labour Market Report (0700 BST)
U.K employment likely remained hot in the three months to February, with the jobless rate seen falling further below pre-pandemic levels to 3.8% from 3.9% in the November-to-January period, according to City analysts. However, LFS employment probably rose by just 52,000, say forecasters, after a 12,000 decline in three months to January.
The inactivity rate actually rose in the prior period, to 21.3%, with large numbers of older workers leaving the work force, a trend that many analysts see continuing. With the labour market tight, total average earnings are expected to rise to annual rate of 5.4% in the three months to February, up from 4.8%. Excluding bonuses, underlying earnings growth is seen stretching to 4.0% from 3.8% in the three months to January.
Despite the nominal gains, real earnings underlying earnings, when discounted by CPIH, fell by 1.1% over the three months to Feb, worse than the 1.0% decline in the previous period. Total real earnings likely rose by 0.3%. Real earnings would have fallen further if discounted by the CPI, which averaged 5.7% over the December-to-January period, above the average CPIH rate of 5.1%.
German March CPI (Final) (0700 BST)
German inflation is seen confirmed at +2.5% m/m and +7.3% y/y for March (harmonised +2.5% m/m and +7.6% y/y). The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated considerable upward pressure on both natural gas and mineral oil prices, with Germany’s energy inflation jumping 17 pp to +39.5% in the March flash estimate.
Markets will be keeping an eye on upside surprises to flash prints ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Markets have shifted to more hawkish expectations following the ECB accounts and French election results. With asset purchases winding up in June, markets are pricing more than a 50/50 chance of a hike kick-off at the July meeting. We think market pricing is quite aggressive.
German ZEW Survey (1000 BST)
The April ZEW survey will provide valuable insight into the second month of the Ukraine war and the associated stagflation risks. The focus will be on whether expectations continue to nosedive or begin to plateau at pessimistic levels.
Consensus surveys are projecting a 9.2-point fall to -48.5 for the expectations index, following a 96.3-point plummet in March. This is around the level seen when Covid hit in March 2020. A stronger 13.6-point slide to -35.0 is expected on the current situation index.
US March CPI (1330 BST)
Today’s inflation print for March is anticipated to see a +1.2% m/m acceleration (Feb +0.8%) and a 0.5pp uptick to +8.4% y/y price growth (Feb +7.9%). Upside risks are substantial in this reading. Underlying core inflation remains high, expected to rise 0.2pp to +6.6% y/y. This will be followed up by the monthly budget statement at 1900 BST.
The FOMC is due to meet at the beginning of May to continue its aggressive rate-hike trajectory as inflation hits another fresh 40-year high.
Source: BLS
Policymaker appearances on today’s schedule are from the Fed, with the ECB in its blackout period ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker and Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin are all set to speak. Links are in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 12/04/2022 | 2301/0001 | * |  | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12/04/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/04/2022 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | DE | HICP (f) |
| 12/04/2022 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 12/04/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Current Account |
| 12/04/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 12/04/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 12/04/2022 | 1000/0600 | ** |  | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 12/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | CPI |
| 12/04/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 12/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index |
| 12/04/2022 | 1610/1210 | | US | Fed Governor Lael Brainard | |
| 12/04/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 12/04/2022 | 1700/1300 | | US | Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker | |
| 12/04/2022 | 1800/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
| 12/04/2022 | 2245/1845 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.