Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
wEDNESday's key data releases include German labour report statistics, along with the February flash print for Eurozone inflation. In the afternoon the BoC will publish its policy decision.
The Ukraine crisis remains tense after another day of continued onslaught, as markets witnessed crude oil top $104 a barrel Tuesday as concerns mount regarding supply.
German GLO Labour Report (0855 GMT)
Germany’s February unemployment is expected to have continued to reduce over the month, with an expected reduction of 22,500. This is less than the stark January reduction of 48,000 unemployed persons which surprised market forecasts expecting a 6,000 fall due to the surge in Covid cases and related restrictions in force.
Eurozone Flash February Inflation - Upside Surprise Likely (1000 GMT)
Today’s flash HICP reading for the Eurozone aggregate follows both Italian and German prints from yesterday, which saw a substantial jump of 1.1% to +6.2% Y/Y for Italy and a 0.4% uptick for Germany to +5.5% y/y in the harmonised readings. These prints were largely stronger than market forecasts, however generated little market reaction due to geopolitical developments remaining the key focus.
Inflation for the Eurozone aggregate is seen rising 5.6% y/y in February, once again hitting a fresh euro-era high. On the month, HICP is seen increasing by 0.6%, accelerating from +0.3% m/m last month. There will be considerable upside risks to today’s print, following the upside surprises in the national prints which the survey data does not consider.
Tuesday saw a substantial shift in market expectations leading to a reassessment of the likelihood of an ECB rate hike this year to around a 60% chance of one 25bp hike. The latest inflation print will likely be uncomfortable news for the ECB but is unlikely to shift rate expectations substantially.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision (1500 GMT)
The Bank of Canada is expected to hike 25bp to 0.5% in their policy rate decision this afternoon, kicking off the hiking cycle which was delayed due to the surge in Omicron cases. A further five 25bp hikes are almost fully priced by markets at the time of writing.
With inflation running at and over a 30-year high of +5.1% y/y and outpacing market expectations in January, the BoC appears to remain focused on stemming inflation and less sensitive to current geopolitical risks seen increasing dovish rhetoric.
Today's key policymaker appearances include speakers from the BOE, ECB and Fed. Links to events can be found in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 02/03/2022 | 0700/0700 | * |  | UK | Nationwide House Price Index |
| 02/03/2022 | 0855/0955 | ** |  | DE | Unemployment |
| 02/03/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 02/03/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** |  | EU | HICP (p) |
| 02/03/2022 | 1000/1100 | | EU | ECB Schnabel at BMAS roundtable | |
| 02/03/2022 | 1100/1200 | | EU | ECB de Guindos Q&A at Universidad Carlos III | |
| 02/03/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 02/03/2022 | 1315/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 02/03/2022 | 1400/0900 | | US | Chicago Fed's Charles Evans | |
| 02/03/2022 | 1430/0930 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 02/03/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 02/03/2022 | 1500/1000 | | US | Fed Chair Pro Tempore Jerome Powell | |
| 02/03/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 02/03/2022 | 1600/1700 | | EU | ECB Lane lecture at Hertie School Berlin | |
| 02/03/2022 | 1830/1830 | | UK | BOE Tenreyro speech to Economic Research Council | |
| 02/03/2022 | 1900/1400 | | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 02/03/2022 | 2000/2000 | | UK | BOE Cunliffe speech at Oxford Union | |
| 02/03/2022 | 2130/1630 | | US | New York Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 03/03/2022 | 2200/0900 | * |  | AU | IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.