Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Following yesterday’s wrap up of soaring Eurozone inflation data, focus turns today towards the BoC’s rate decision and Eurozone and US labour data.
Germany Retail Sales (0700 BST)
German retail is expected to have slowed considerably in April, with consensus looking for a 0.5% contraction on March as consumers shy from soaring Eurozone inflation and increased prices of goods resulting from the Ukraine war.
Final Manufacturing PMIs
Spanish and Italian first and final manufacturing PMIs for May are both seen weakening. Spain will likely fall 1.3 points to 52.0, whilst Italy is expected to soften by a smaller 0.9 points to 53.6. With Spanish factory-gate inflation running hot at 45.0% y/y in April, cost pressures will continue to cut into manufacturing margins.
French, Germany, Eurozone, UK and US (in the afternoon) manufacturing PMIs are expected to confirm flash estimates.
Eurozone Unemployment (1000 BST)
The April euro area unemployment rate is expected to stagnate at 6.8%. This is unchanged from the record low seen in March.
US ISM Manufacturing (1500 BST)
The ISM Manufacturing index is projected to tick down 0.9-points to 54.5 in May, as surging price pressures and worsened supply chain relations due to lockdowns in China in May continue to hamper production. We note upside risks to this data following yesterday’s surprise uptick in the Chicago PMI from 56.4 to 60.3 on the back of robust demand.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision (1500 BST)
The Bank of Canada is almost unanimously expected to hike its overnight rate by another 50bp to 1.5% today as part of its journey to neutral, defined as 2-3%.
The statement-only release is likely to maintain its hawkish tone to keep inflation expectations from de-anchoring but offer little in the way of new guidance.
Hawkish surprises could come from language around moving further into excess demand or inflation being increasingly persistent and broad-based, but the market is likely more sensitive to dovish commentary concerning the global growth backdrop and/or moderation in Canadian housing activity.
US JOLTS (1500 BST)
US Job openings are seen slowing by around 200k in April, following the March series high of 11.549 million. This data reiterates the tightness of the US labour market ahead of the publication of the Fed Beige Book due at 1900 BST.
Multiple ECB and Fed speakers are on today’s schedule, with the BOE remaining quiet ahead of the Platinum Jubilee long weekend. The ECB’s President Lagarde, Fabio Panetta and Chief Economist Philip Lane will be making appearances, as well as New York Fed’s John Williams and St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 01/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Retail Sales |
| 01/06/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/06/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/06/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/06/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/06/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/06/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 01/06/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 01/06/2022 | 1100/1300 | | EU | ECB Lagarde Panelist at Green Swan Conference | |
| 01/06/2022 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/06/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 01/06/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 01/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 01/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 01/06/2022 | 1515/1715 | | EU | ECB Panetta Into at European Parliament | |
| 01/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 01/06/2022 | 1530/1730 | | EU | ECB Lane Speaks at CEPR Paris Symposium | |
| 01/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 01/06/2022 | 1700/1300 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 01/06/2022 | 1800/1400 | | US | Fed Beige Book |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.