Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday’s data releases of interest include Italian sentiment indicators, the CBRT rate decision, Canadian retail sales and US weekly jobless claims.
Italian Confidence Indexes (0900 BST)
Italian sentiment indexes are projected to tick down moderately in the May release. Consumer confidence is seen all but unchanged at 99.9 (April 100.0), whilst manufacturing confidence is expected to edge down by one point to 109.0. This follows today’s French consumer confidence data, which saw a surprise 2-point dip. Geopolitical instability of the Ukraine war and inflation continue to chip at sentiment, and are likely to further dampen propensity to spend in today’s Italian data.
CBRT Rate Decision (1200 BST)
The CBRT is expected to leave its 1-week repo rate steady at 14% on May 26 despite de-anchoring inflation expectations and renewed TRY weakness.
The Ukraine war shock combined with the renewed TRY weakness could delay the ‘disinflation process’ that the CBRT has been referring to in its latest meetings. For our comprehensive previewclick here.
Canada Retail Sales (1330 BST)
The March print for Canadian retail sales points at continued strength, expected to be up 1.4% m/m from +0.1% m/m. Excluding auto sales +2.1% m/m growth is anticipated, as also seen in February. With inflation hitting 6.7% in March (6.8% in April), retail growth has remained buoyant but bound to slow as consumers reassess the squeeze on disposable incomes.
US Weekly Jobless Claims (1330 BST)
This week’s US jobless claims report points at a modest softening in initial and a further step down in continuing jobless claims, both expected down 3k-7k. This continuation of reduced claims highlights the tightness of the US labour market, as it edges closer to full capacity.
Today also sees the second estimate for personal consumption, GDP and PCE. Q/Q GDP and personal consumption are both anticipated to tick down a further 0.1pp for Q1 2022. Despite disappointing US PMI numbers this week as demand begins to lose momentum, the unwavering strength of the US labour market reinstates confidence in the Fed’s hawkish tightening cycle.
The only key policymaker appearance on today’s schedule is Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard’s testimony to lawmakers.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 26/05/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 26/05/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 26/05/2022 | 1100/0700 | * |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 26/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 26/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 26/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 26/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | GDP (2nd) |
| 26/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 26/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | Retail Trade |
| 26/05/2022 | 1400/1000 |  | MX | Mexican central Bank policy meet minutes | |
| 26/05/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAR pending home sales |
| 26/05/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 26/05/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 26/05/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 26/05/2022 | 1600/1200 | | US | Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard | |
| 26/05/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.