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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday's data focusses on a few key points ahead of major central bank policy decisions later this week, where we expect to see the Fed quickening their taper, the ECB signposting the post-PEPP world and the BOE once again postponing a rate hike.
UK Labour Market Expected to Remain Tight (0700 GMT)
With the BOE monetary policy decision announcement due Thursday, this data will act as a significant signal of the health of the labour market following the end of the Job Retention Scheme.
The quarterly UK unemployment rate is forecasted to improve marginally to 4.2% in the three months to October, down from the September reading of 4.3%, with the UK is forecasted to add 225k jobs. It is worth noting that whilst short and medium-term unemployment fell in September’s quarterly reading, long-term unemployment (over 12 months) has been rising since June 2020.
The consensus is predicting a fall in headline average weekly earnings, from 5.8 % 3m/3m in September to 4.6% 3m/3m for October, remaining higher than pre-pandemic levels but significantly lower than June’s series high of 8.8%. Base effects and compositional shifts associated with the drop in low-paid work are likely to inflate these numbers and recent Omicron-related restrictions to present significant downside risks for the December print.
Eurozone Industrial Production Sees Slight Improvements (1000 GMT)
Eurozone IP is forecast to have improved in October, with growth expected to reach 1.3% m/m following September’s contraction of -0.2% m/m, predominantly due to some easing of supply bottlenecks. Annual industrial production is however estimated to dip to 3.2% for October 2021, compared to September’s y/y reading of 5.2%.
US PPI Growth Stabilises (1330 GMT)
Analysts forecast US final demand and core PPI to remain relatively stable in the monthly readings, with headline PPI to come in at 0.5% m/m for November, down from 0.6% m/m in October. Core PPI appears likely remain stable at 0.4% m/m.
Both annual headline and core PPI are set to jump around half a percentage point for November, to 9.2% from 8.6% for the headline number and to 7.2% from 6.8% for the core reading. Fluctuations in the PPI reading could signal easing or increased pressure on US supply chains ahead of the FOMC’s decision on Wednesday.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 14/12/2021 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 14/12/2021 | 0830/0930 | *** |  | SE | Inflation report |
| 14/12/2021 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | industrial production |
| 14/12/2021 | - |  | US | FOMC policy meeting, in Washington. | |
| 14/12/2021 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | PPI |
| 14/12/2021 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 14/12/2021 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.