Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday’s key data points will be largely consumer-confidence based, with March data coming in for France and the US, whilst the German GfK indicator looks forward at April sentiment.
German GfK Consumer Confidence (0700 BST)
Friday’s IFO survey saw greater than expected declines and a series record falls in expectations on the back of the Ukraine war. Today’s GfK survey offers insight into associated consumer behavior spillover effects, with a 6.4-point fall to -14.5 expected for April and most recent forecasts highlighting downward surprises. The pre-crisis level tended to hover around the 10-point mark.
French Consumer Confidence (0745 BST)
French consumer sentiment is projected to soften to 94 in March (98 previous), the lowest since February 2021, also on the back of the Ukraine-war and associated dampened growth outlooks coupled with rising inflation and the notable squeeze on consumers’ disposable income.
UK M4 & Mortgage Approvals (0930 BST)
UK money supply has fallen back sharply from pandemic-era highs of last year which saw 13.8% y/y growth in February 2021. February 2022’s print follows the milder +0.1% m/m and 5.7% y/y growth in January.
Consensus sees mortgage approvals increasing by 700 to 74,000 in February, the highest since July 2021. UK three-month average wage growth has been strengthening since December, likely underpinning confidence in household investments, although sentiment readings suggest tougher times ahead.
US Consumer Confidence (1500 BST)
Consumer confidence data will be closely eyed following surprisingly strong PMI readings last week which largely shrugged off effects of the Ukraine war, unlike in the UK and Eurozone. Estimates are looking for a 3.5-point fall to 107.0. This indicator has remained very resilient over the last year, and as such, this represents the lowest reading since February 2021.
US JOLTS Job Openings (1500 BST)
Job openings are expected to slow in February as the very tight US labour market becomes more saturated. February is anticipated at 11 000, stepping down from 11 263 in January. This will act as an important indicator ahead of Non-farm Payrolls due on Friday. With the seeing both headline and wage inflation growing, a 50bp hike is pencilled in for the June FOMC meeting.
Today's key policymaker appearances include New York Fed’s John Williams and Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker. Where available, links can be found in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 29/03/2022 | 0030/1130 | ** |  | AU | Retail Trade |
| 29/03/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/03/2022 | 0600/0800 | * |  | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29/03/2022 | 0645/0845 | ** |  | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 29/03/2022 | 0700/0900 |  | ES | Spain Retail Sales | |
| 29/03/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | BOE M4 |
| 29/03/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 29/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Payroll employment |
| 29/03/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 29/03/2022 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 29/03/2022 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 29/03/2022 | 1300/0900 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 29/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 29/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 29/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 29/03/2022 | 1445/1045 | | US | Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker | |
| 29/03/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.