Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
April kicks off with Swiss CPI, followed by the round of global manufacturing PMIs. Eurozone flash inflation for March will be a key highlight today, as well as the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also comes out this afternoon.
Swiss CPI (0730 BST)
Swiss headline inflation is projected to increase by 0.2pp to +2.4% y/y in March at a new October-2008 high. Price growth is expected to slow to +0.5% m/m from +0.7% m/m seen in February.
The SNB policy rate currently sits at -0.75%. Inflation in Switzerland is significantly lower than neighbouring countries, which is largely the product of less exposure to high energy prices, the strong currency. Wage growth also remains contained.
Final Manufacturing PMIs
Manufacturing PMIs are seen confirming March flash estimates for France, Germany, the Eurozone, UK and US. The Spain and Italy prints will be new, whereby Spain is projected to ease 1.2 points to 55.7 in March followed by Italian manufacturing softening by 1.3 points to 57.0, both falls would be the lowest since February last year.
Future outlooks have deteriorated substantially since the onset of the Ukraine war. March manufacturing PMIs saw declines on the back of worsened supply-chain disruptions and soaring input prices as a result. Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMIs retreated to early 2021 levels in flash prints. The US painted a different picture achieving a 1.2-point improvement to 58.5 on the back of strong demand and output.
Eurozone Flash Inflation (1000 BST)
Eurozone inflation is set to soar in the March flash reading, with consensus seeing a jump to a new euro-era high of +6.7% y/y from +5.8% y/y seen in February. Most recent expectations point towards an acceleration of +7.4% to +7.6% y/y, following substantial upside surprises from Spain and Germany. Analysts are seeing +1.8% m/m price growth.
Following the March ECB taper acceleration, the ECB has been repositioning itself to tackle inflation. The Eurozone is seen bearing the brunt of energy and oil inflation from the Ukraine war and will be weighing up two-way risks of inflation and dampened growth outlooks ahead of the April meeting.
Nonfarm Payrolls (1330 BST)
The tight US labour market will likely see job growth slow around 200k to +490k as employers actively raise compensation to attract potential workers. With both headline and wage inflation growing, a 50bp hike is penciled in for the June FOMC meeting.
Only one key policymaker appearance iin s on the schedule for Friday: Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans. On Saturday both the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel and Ney York Fed’s John Williams will be making appearances.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 01/04/2022 | 2350/0850 | *** |  | JP | Tankan |
| 01/04/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2022 | 0145/0945 | ** |  | CN | IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2022 | 0630/0830 | ** |  | SE | Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2022 | 0630/0830 | *** |  | CH | CPI |
| 01/04/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/04/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | NO | Norway Unemployment Rate |
| 01/04/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/04/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 01/04/2022 | - | *** |  | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 01/04/2022 | 1305/0905 | | US | Chicago Fed's Charles Evans | |
| 01/04/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.