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MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: Eurozone IP & Univ Michigan Eyed

MNI (London)

The week wraps up with Norwegian GDP, Turkish and Eurozone IP and the U. Michigan index all on the docket.

Norway GDP (0700 BST)

The Norwegian economy is projected to have contracted by -1.3% q/q in Q1, after almost stalling in Q4 2021 at +0.1% q/q when pandemic restrictions weakened demand and net exports declined.

Final Inflation Prints for France & Spain (0745/0800 GMT)

France and Spain should see their flash estimates confirmed for April, with inflation running at a record 5.4% (up 0.3pp) in France and softening to 8.3% (down 1.5pp) in Spain.

Turkey Industrial Production (0800)

The March print sees Turkish IP growth decelerating to +6.3% y/y from 13.3% y/y in February. Particular strength was seen in non-durables, which was up 18.9% y/y.

March will see the 21st consecutive month of growth, however, growth is expected to begin to slow in coming months as foreign demand dampens and supply chains come under more pressure from the Ukraine war.

Eurozone Industrial Production (1000 GMT)

Euro area IP looks less rosy, with a -2.0% m/m contraction in March (Feb +0.7%) and a -1.0% y/y fall (Feb +2.0% y/y) anticipated. The aggregate print will confirm the negative impact of the war on supply chains.

Last week’s German data saw a -3.9% m/m contraction, the largest since the pandemic onset.

University of Michigan Sentiment / Inflation expectations (1500 GMT)

The U. Michigan prelim estimate is seen moderating by 1.2 points to 64.0 in May, as consumer confidence is likely to fall further due to uncertainty surrounding inflation and higher interest rates. Of interest will also be the inflation rate prognosis, which is likely to tick up 0.1pp to 5.5% for one-year expectations.

Source: U. Michigan

The EDB’s Luis de Guindos and Isabel Schnabel will be appearing today, as well as Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari and Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester.

13/05/20220600/0800**NO Norway GDP
13/05/20220645/0845***FR HICP (f)
13/05/20220700/0900***ES HICP (f)
13/05/20220700/0900EUECB de Guindos Lecture at Academia Europea Leadership
13/05/20220900/1100**EUIndustrial Production
13/05/20221230/0830**US Import/Export Price Index
13/05/20221400/1000***US University of Michigan Sentiment Index (p)
13/05/20221500/1100USMinneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
13/05/20221600/1800EUECB Schnabel Panelist at IRFMP
13/05/20221600/1200US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester

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