Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Monday kicks off with a lighter data day. This week the key focus will be the RBNZ and BOC policy meetings, where final big hikes are anticipated before a shift to a less hawkish approach going forward.
Norway Inflation (0700 BST)
The Norwegian headline inflation print is expected to hold steady at +5.7% y/y in June at the highest rate in over 33 years. Core inflation is anticipated to tick up 0.1pp to 3.5% y/y, following the surprise 0.8pp increase to 3.4% y/y in May which effectively pushed Norges Bank to hastily hike 50bp at their June meeting. As such another surprise acceleration in the core rate will be seen as a hawkish risk ahead of the next meeting.
Italy Retail Sales (0900 BST)
Modest +0.4% m/m growth is on the forecast for May Italian retail sales, after stalling the month prior. Retail sales remain strong compared to 2021 levels.
New York Survey of Consumer Expectations (1600 BST)
The NY consumer expectations survey will likely regain more relevance as US inflation expectations continue to be a key focus for markets. One-year inflation expectations could tick up further from 6.6% seen in May. Of interest will also be the three-year expectations, which remained unchanged at 3.9% last month. As consumers continue to price rising costs into their budget plans, rising inflation expectations highlight likely downside risks to demand in the coming months.
Central Bank Decisions this week:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Wednesday)
The RBNZ has another 50bp hike in sight for Wednesday, however, a slowdown in tightening is expected at future meetings. With quarterly inflation and employment figures not yet out, both New Zealand and Australia rely on other data points to guide policy in the meantime, whereby a small contraction in Q1 GDP is calling for the foot to be taken off the gas sooner rather than later.
Bank of Canada (Wednesday)
Following Friday’s employment data which saw the unemployment rate fall to 4.9%, little stands in the way of the expected 75bp hike to 2.25% from the BoC on Wednesday. Considering the neutral rate of 2-3%, this implies that the BOC could be heading towards the end of their tightening cycle.
Monday sees a quiet day for key policymakers, with the ECB’s President Lagarde & Fabio Panetta at the Eurogroup meeting and the New York Fed's John Williams speaking on LIBOR.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 11/07/2022 | 0600/0800 | * |  | NO | CPI Norway |
| 11/07/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Retail Sales |
| 11/07/2022 | - |  | EU | ECB Lagarde & Panetta at Eurogroup Meeting | |
| 11/07/2022 | 1500/1100 | ** |  | US | NY Fed survey of consumer expectations |
| 11/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 11/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 11/07/2022 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 11/07/2022 | 1800/1400 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.