Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Friday sees a full schedule on the data front, with multiple European flash GDP estimates for Q4 due. A general trend is expected to show GDP slowing on the quarter, but substantially stronger on the year (with the exception of for Germany). Italian, Eurozone and US economic sentiment surveys are also on the menu today, as well as US personal income and spending data.
France Flash GDP / Consumer Spending (0630 GMT)
France’s flash GDP reading for Q4 is expected to slow substantially from +3.0% in Q3 to just +0.5% in Q4 ion the quarter. On the year, GDP is forecasted to be stronger at +4.9% y/y, up from +3.3% y/y in Q3.
French consumer spending is also due today and expected to point towards weakened household consumption. Key reasons were rising Covid cases and early Christmas shopping as consumers were wary of possible supply disruptions and delays. Spending is seen weakening to no growth at 0% m/m in December from +0.8% m/m in November. Compared to December 2020, consumer spending is likely to fall to +5.2% y/y, compared to November which saw a jump of +14.8% y/y pre-omicron with early shopping.
Sweden Flash GDP / Economic Tendency Survey (0700 / 0800 GMT)
Sweden's GDP growth is set to dampen to +1.0% q/q in Q4, compared to +1.8% q/q in Q3. Compared to Q4 2020, analysts are projecting stronger growth of +5.5% y/y from +4.7% y/y in Q3.
The Swedish economic tendency survey follows in a busy morning for Swedish data. The economic tendency survey edged down to 117.1 in December due to lower household confidence slowing demand and is likely to follow suit this month. The indicator remains very high, pointing to much stronger economic growth in Sweden than usual.
Spain Flash GDP (0800 GMT)
Spanish GDP growth is seen weakening to +1.4% q/q in the Q4 preliminary estimate, down from +2.6% q/q in Q3. GDP is still stronger on the year, reaching +4.4% y/y for Q4 2021, whilst Q3 was at +3.4% y/y.
Germany Flash GDP (0900 GMT)
Germany’s GDP growth is projected to have contracted in Q4 to -0.3% q/q from +1.7% q/q in Q3. The annual growth rate is seen contracting to +1.8% y/y in Q4 2021 from +2.5% y/y in Q3.
Italy Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence (0900 GMT)
Analysts are forecasting Italian consumer and manufacturing confidence to edge down in January. Manufacturing is seen moderating to 115 from 115.2 in November, where expectations of future production slid, despite improvements in inventory levels. This still remains above pre-pandemic levels. Consumer confidence is expected to fall to 116.5 in January, down from 117.7 in December, which was the third strongest reading for the year following a bout of income and business tax cuts, despite falling future expectations.
Eurozone Sentiment Indicators (1000 GMT)
Economic sentiment in the Eurozone is seen softening to 114.5 in January, from 115.3 in December, likely as a continuation of falling retail, services and consumer confidence associated with rising covid cases and associated dampening of demand. Despite this, confidence remains round ten points above pre-pandemic levels pre-pandemic levels. Services confidence is likely to fall to 9.6 from 11.2 which would be the ninth consecutive month with readings over zero since the pandemic began. Industrial confidence is the only indicator projected to see slight improvement in January, reaching a new record high of 15.0, up from 14.9 where current order books was boosted, and production expectations held steady.
US Personal Income and Consumption, University of Michigan Sentiment Flash (1330 / 1500 GMT)
Analysts are forecasting personal income to edge up to 0.5% m/m in December from 0.4% in November, which was largely due to both increased labour income and effects of government benefits. Despite this increase, personal spending is seen contracting to -0.6% in December, which would bring it below zero for the first time since February 2021. This fall will likely be largely due to surging covid-19 cases dampening demand in combination with many consumers pulling Christmas shopping forward to November.
The flash estimate for the Michigan index today is seen moderating to 68.7 from 68.8 in January’s flash estimate for January, which would bring it to the second lowest level in ten years due largely to acute inflation concerns.
There are no key policymaker appearances planned for today, following Wednesday's FOMC meeting and the ECB and BOE currently in their blackout period.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 28/01/2022 | 0630/0730 | ** |  | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 28/01/2022 | 0630/0730 | *** | | FR | GDP (p) |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | Unemployment |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | *** | | SE | GDP |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | * |  | NO | Norway Unemployment Rate |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 28/01/2022 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 28/01/2022 | 0800/0900 | *** |  | ES | GDP (p) |
| 28/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 28/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 28/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** | | DE | GDP (p) |
| 28/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 28/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 28/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Business Climate Indicator |
| 28/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 28/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Employment Cost Index |
| 28/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | Final Michigan Sentiment Index |
| 28/01/2022 | 1600/1100 |  | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.