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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
In a busy week for surveys, Friday’s data moves from the pessimistic PMIs towards likely dampened sentiment indicators for Germany and Italy. UK retail sales will suggest demand weakening further in the early morning, whilst US new home sales will see the effects of climbing mortgage rates in the afternoon.
UK Retail Sales (0700 BST)
Substantial contractions are on the radar for May UK retail sales, down 0.7% m/m including fuel, following robust 1.4% m/m growth in April. Compared to May 2021, retail sales are seen at -4.5% y/y (excluding fuel -5.0% y/y), which are small improvements on April’s 14-month plunge.
This follow’ the latest CBI retail trade report, which highlighted weakened demand into the summer months as inflationary pressures cut into consumer spending.
Germany IFO (0900 BST)
Following Thursday's French business climate index seeing a slump in services and retail, similar developments are anticipated for the German indicator. Business climate perceptions will likely edge down 0.2pp to 92.8 and the current climate assessment down 0.5pp to 99.0.
A modest 0.5pp improvement in expectations in June would bring the indicator to 87.4, in the third month of small recoveries since the 14-point fall at the onset of the Ukraine war. There is again downside risk to this index following strong downside surprises on June PMIs in yesterday’s flash, which highlighted renewed pessimism in growth outlooks.
Hints of any easing price pressures and supply chain constraints will be closely looked for.
Italy Business & Consumer Confidence (0900 BST)
Following suit, Italian manufacturing sentiment is anticipated to step down 0.8 points to 108.5 in June. The consumer confidence index is projected to see a modest 0.3-point improvement to 103.0, remaining around 15 points below levels seen at the end of 2021 (pre-Omicron and pre-Ukraine war).
The direction of other eurozone confidence indicators imply likely downside risks. The Eurozone indicator dipped another 2.4 points on Wednesday against consensus expectations of a 0.6-point improvement.
US Michigan Sentiment (Final) & New Home Sales (1500 BST)
The US University of Michigan index final June print is due today, following the upside inflation expectations surprise in the flash estimate, which in part pushed the Fed’s hasty 75bp hike at the last meeting. Preliminary estimates are expected to be confirmed, with one-year inflation expectations elevated at +5.4% and 5-10-year at 3.3%,.
The sentiment index is seen confirmed at the record low of 50.2, a hefty 8.2-point slide following expectations falling to a 42-year low.
Looking at new home sales, the May data should see stabilisation at +590k, headed towards a modest 0.2% m/m contraction following the 16.6% contraction of April. Further downside risks are likely with mortgage rates climbing to the highest rates seen since late 2008, and construction costs expanding due to continued inflation and supply constraints.
The ECB’s Luis de Guindos, St. Louis Fed's James Bullard, San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly as well as the BOE’s Huw Pill and Jonathan Haskel make for a busy day of policymaker appearances.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 24/06/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Retail Sales |
| 24/06/2022 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | GDP (f) |
| 24/06/2022 | 0800/1000 | *** |  | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24/06/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 24/06/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 24/06/2022 | 1130/0730 |  | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 24/06/2022 | 1130/1330 |  | EU | ECB de Guindos Panels UBS Discussion | |
| 24/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Payroll employment |
| 24/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 24/06/2022 | 1300/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 24/06/2022 | 1330/1430 | | UK | BOE Pill Speaks at Walter Eucken Institute Conference | |
| 24/06/2022 | 1345/1445 | | UK | BOE Haskel Panels Chatham House London Conference | |
| 24/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Final Michigan Sentiment Index |
| 24/06/2022 | 1500/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 24/06/2022 | 2000/1600 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.