Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday sees a relatively quiet day in data, with the German ZEW survey taking centre stage
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (1000 BST)
A plunge in German economic sentiment is on the card for July, with current situation perceptions expected to fall close to 7 points to -34.5. whilst expectations are anticipated to dive 12 points to -40.0. This is back around March/April levels at the initial war shock.
This cancels out improvements seen in last month’s current climate and expectations, which was largely a recalibration of stark falls in optimism at the onset of the Ukraine war. Consumer retail industries were particularly hit as the cost of living crunch sees domestic demand weaken.
Outlooks regarding Nord Stream 1 are concerning, generating substantial uncertainty for German industry as gas supply during this week’s maintenance works could foreshadow issues with supply at the end of the year. This combined with supply bottlenecks and soaring commodity prices sees the German economy facing significant challenges.
US NFIB Small Business Optimism (1100 BST)
Small business outlooks are seen clouding over again in the June survey, slipping 0.6 points to 92.5. This would be the sixth consecutive month under the long-term average of 98, following last month’s survey which saw six-month outlooks dive to a 48-year low. As inflationary pressures, labour supply and supply chain disruptions persist further into the year, optimism continues to wane for US small businesses.
ZEW Survey expectations:
Today’s policymaker appearances of note include the BOE’s Jon Cunliffe and Governor Andrew Bailey in the morning, followed by Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin in the afternoon.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 12/07/2022 | 0800/0900 |  | UK | BOE Cunliffe on Crypto Markets | |
| 12/07/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 12/07/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 12/07/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 12/07/2022 | 0900/1000 | | UK | BOE Bailey Speaks at OMFIF | |
| 12/07/2022 | 1000/0600 | ** |  | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 12/07/2022 | - |  | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 12/07/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 12/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index |
| 12/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 12/07/2022 | 1600/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/07/2022 | 1630/1230 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 12/07/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.