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The key highlight of Friday’s data will be US nonfarm payrolls in the afternoon. Some small early points of interest in the Eurozone include French IP and Eurozone retail sales, however, the data is somewhat stale in that it should largely be highlighting a quick recovery on the Omicron wave.
Markets will continue to devote much of their focus towards any changes in the Ukraine invasion, however, expectations are relatively low of any early breakthrough.
French Industrial Production (0745 GMT)
The January print for French IP will likely highlight divergence in the monthly and annualised readings. On the month, IP is seen recovering to +0.5% m/m growth, up from -0.2% m/m in December, however, IP is expected to have contracted -3.2% y/y in January compared to a smaller fall of -0.5% y/y prior.
Italian GDP (0900 GMT)
The Italian final GDP print is expected to confirm the flash estimate at +6.4% y/y and +0.6% q/q growth, boosted by domestic demand growth. In 2021, Italy saw a four-decade high economic expansion of +6.5%.
Eurozone Retail Sales (1000 GMT)
A strong recovery in Eurozone aggregate retail sales is anticipated in the final January print, up +1.5% m/m in January from -3.0% m/m and +9.2% y/y from +2.0% y/y in December. The solid growth reflects recoveries from the Omicron wave and associated restrictions which hit German and Spanish retail numbers particularly hard in December.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to be Strong (1330 GMT)
US Nonfarm payrolls will be the key focus Friday. Markets are pricing in addition of 423k nonfarm payrolls in February, over 40k below the strong upside surprise of 467k in January, which was boosted by the hospitality sector (around 150k was forecasted). The more recent survey estimates are hinting at an upward surprise for February.
As such, the unemployment rate is also seen improving further, inching down to 3.9% in February from 4.0% in January and bringing it back in line with the December print.
Wage growth is projected to be at +5.8% y/y, up from +5.7% y/y, albeit upside surprises could carry weight as the survey tends to underestimate wage inflation.
The backdrop of the Ukraine war and surging oil prices which has shifted central banks such as the ECB more dovish, versus underlying inflationary pressures and strong US payrolls will set the scene for the March 16 hike decision.
Powell’s testimony this week steered towards a 25bp March hike but noted that unless inflation begins to recede, 50bp hikes could still be in the picture for 2022. This caused a steepening of the Eurodollar strip on Wednesday (see story here).
Nonfarm payrolls over the last 18 months:
Source: Bloomberg
There are no key policymaker appearances on the schedule.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 04/03/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | trade balance |
| 04/03/2022 | 0745/0845 | * |  | FR | Industrial production |
| 04/03/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04/03/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | IT | GDP (f) |
| 04/03/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/03/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Retail sales |
| 04/03/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | US | Employment Report |
| 04/03/2022 | 1500/1000 | * |  | CA | Ivey PMI |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.