Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday’s central bank policy meetings saw the BOE hiking by 15 bp to 0.25% on a majority of 8-1 in light of surging inflation, set to hit 6% in the spring, and a tight labour market. The ECB remained predictable, announcing PEPP to be wound down in March 2022, extending reinvestments until October 2024 whilst APP will be boosted (with some flexibility) to provide a smooth transition. No rate hikes are on the horizon for 2022, as the ECB predicts medium-term 2023 annual HICP inflation coming back down to 1.6%.
German Producer Prices (0700 GMT)
Analysts are seeing another month of surging producer prices for Germany, with the consensus pricing a 19.9% y/y increase for November, up from October’s 18.4% y/y jump, which was the strongest increase since 1951, on the back of alarmingly high energy prices alongside intermediate goods price inflation. On the month, producer prices are predicted to have grown at 1.4% in November, slowing from October’s reading of 3.8%.
UK Retail Sales (0700 GMT)
UK retail sales are predicted to have made a strong rebound in today’s data, expected to jump to 4.2% y/y in November, up from -1.3% y/y in October. The monthly forecast expects retail sale growth to remain steady at 0.8% m/m for November, boosted by early Christmas shopping.
German IFO Business Climate (0900 GMT)
Following a bumper summer, the German IFO index has been declining over the past months as outlooks and expectations look pessimistic as covid cases surge and supply bottlenecks continue to be problematic, albeit easing up slightly. Service industry outlooks deteriorated substantially, in line with November 2020 levels. The consensus is predicting December’s reading to decline to 95.3, down from 96.5 last month.
Eurozone Final Inflation Data (1000 GMT)
Following the ECB’s dovish decision yesterday, today’s final HICP will highlight the extent of November’s headline inflation growth in the Eurozone. Forecasts are in line with the flash estimates, with analysts pricing an inflation rate of 4.9% y/y for November, hitting euro-era high and up from 4.1% y/y in October.
Monthly inflation is expected to be confirmed at 0.5% m/m for November, down from 0.8% m/m in October. Surging energy costs remain the key culprit, with Germany’s HICP rate reaching 6% for November.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.