Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Italian IP data kicks off Thursday's European data, however all eyes will be on US factory gate inflation data later in the day as the key data release.
Italian Industrial Production Strengthens (0900 GMT)
Italian IP is forecasted to have strengthened to 3.7% y/y in the November reading, up from 2.0% y/y in October. The monthly forecast also appears optimistic at 0.4% m/m following a contraction of 0.6% m/m in October. The Italian data wraps up the round of Eurozone IP, which saw small contractions for France and Germany, but strong expansions for Spain and the Eurozone.
US Jobless Claims Reflect Strong Labour Market (1330 GMT)
Last week’s US initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 200,000, down from 207,000 in the week prior.
The weekly reduction in jobless claims has been hovering just above the 200,000 mark since mid-December, which is stronger than the pre-pandemic level of around 215,000.
Continuing claims are also set to fall, with the consensus forecasting 1733,000 for the week ending January 1. This implies a further reduction of 21,000 claims from the previous reading.
US Factory Gate Inflation to Continue Upsurge, Slower on the Month (1330 GMT)
Analysts are looking for US PPI to hit 9.8% y/y in December, hiking further from 9.6% y/y in November.
Despite the continued annual upsurge, US monthly PPI is expected to dampen for the third consecutive month in December, down to 0.4% m/m from 0.8% m/m.
The core readings for December are set to follow suit, rising to 8.0% y/y from 7.7% y/y, whilst contracting to 0.5% m/m from 0.7% m/m.
Upside surprises are likely in this data, as the Bloomberg consensus tended to underestimate US factory gate inflation over the past 12 months.
Overall, the tight US labour market and surging inflation continue to endorse hawkish Fed-speak, with markets watching closely for clues about a possible combination of rate hike and balance sheet runoffs later in the year.
We have a busy schedule of policymaker appearances today, including BOE MPC member Catherine Mann, the ECB's Luis de Guindos and Frank Elderson, Philadelphia Fed's President Ptrick Harker, Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin and Chicago Fed's Charles Evans, as well as Lael Brainard's senate nomination hearing.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 13/01/2022 | 0101/0101 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/REC Jobs Report |
| 13/01/2022 | 0845/0845 | | UK | BOE Mann at EIB Conference | |
| 13/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | * |  | IT | industrial orders |
| 13/01/2022 | 1030/1130 |  | EU | ECB de Guindos at UBS Q&A | |
| 13/01/2022 | 1300/0800 |  | US | Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker | |
| 13/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 13/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | PPI |
| 13/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 13/01/2022 | 1430/1530 | | EU | ECB Elderson at Climate Change Seminar | |
| 13/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | | US | Fed Brainard's Senate Nomination Hearing | |
| 13/01/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 13/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 13/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 13/01/2022 | 1700/1200 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 13/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | | US | Chicago Fed's Charles Evans | |
| 13/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.