MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: Swiss CPI Fresh High Likely
A further 0.1pp uptick to +2.6% y/y is on the cards for this morning’s May Swiss CPI print, whilst the monthly rate is expected to edge down 0.1pp to +0.3% m/m. This would be a fresh high on late 2008 levels. Transport, housing and energy price pressures remain the key upwards drivers.
Shifts in rhetoric from the ultra-dovish SNB have been noted in recent weeks. The strong Swiss Franc and rents being not indexed have been key in Swiss inflation remaining a fraction of rates seen across the region. With almost half of its gas being supplied from Russia, further inflation is on the horizon.
Eurozone PPI (1000 BST)
Following the record +8.1% CPI rate in Tuesday’s flash release, a 1.6-point acceleration to +38.4% y/y is anticipated for April PPI. Factory-gate prices remain significantly exposed to both supply bottle necks and energy prices which have surged with the onset of the Ukraine war. A softer but strong +2.3% uptick is seen on the month (March +5.3% m/m).
US ADP National Employment Report (1315 BST)
The ADP employment change will give clues to the direction of the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. Private business hires are forecasted to expand just over 50k to 300k in May, lifting slightly from the April 2020 low seen in April, highlighting the extremely tight labour market and inflated wages, which effectively crowds out small company’s hiring capacities
US Weekly Jobless Claims (1330 BST)
This week’s US jobless claims report points at further modest softening in continuing jobless claims, expected down 8k for the week ending May 21 as the US labour market edges closer to full capacity.
US Factory Orders (1500 BST)
A slowdown to +0.7% m/m in April from +2.2% m/m is forecasted for US factory orders, whilst durable good orders are seen being confirmed at +0.4% m/m. Regional PMIs had pointed towards demand beginning to soften, as inflationary pressures and supply disruptions worsen with China’s lockdowns in April.
Thursday will see the BOC’s Deputy Beaudry Economic Progress Report speech, followed by New York Fed's Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester in the early evening. No ECB or BOE key policymaker appearances are scheduled.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 02/06/2022 | 0130/1130 | ** |  | AU | Trade Balance |
| 02/06/2022 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Retail Trade |
| 02/06/2022 | 0630/0830 | *** |  | CH | CPI |
| 02/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | PPI |
| 02/06/2022 | 1215/0815 | *** |  | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 02/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Building Permits |
| 02/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 02/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 02/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Non-Farm Productivity (f) |
| 02/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | factory new orders |
| 02/06/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 02/06/2022 | 1445/1045 | | CA | BOC Deputy Beaudry Economic Progress Report Speech | |
| 02/06/2022 | 1500/1100 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 02/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 02/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 02/06/2022 | 1600/1200 | | US | New York Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 02/06/2022 | 1700/1300 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester |