MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: The Week Ahead

Following the Easter break, Tuesday sees a slow return on the data calendar, so we highlight some data points of interest for the next few days.

Tuesday: US Housing Starts (1330 BST)

US housing starts are expected to slow marginally to 1.740 million from 1.769 milliom in March, where a +6.8% m/m jump saw a fresh multi-year high. With labour shortages due to the Omicron wave subsiding, higher demand is being met again.

The extent to which more acute supply chain restraints and input price growth worsened by the Ukraine war will be of key interest here in assessing market impacts.

Wednesday: German Producer Prices (0700 BST)

The March factory-gate inflation print will further highlight the extent of Russian sanctions on upwards price pressures. Germany’s energy-intensive manufacturing industry and heavy reliance on Russian energy imports will reflect stark PPI growth, with +30.0% y/y and +2.7% m/m anticipated for March (Feb +25.9% y/y and +1.4% m/m).

With factory-gate inflation feeding into consumer goods, inflation in the region remains on an upwards trajectory.

Canadian CPI (1330 BST)

Canadian inflation is projected to reach 6.1% in the March print, up from +5.7% y/y seen in February. On the month,+0.9% is anticipated (Feb: +1.0%). The BoC hiked 50bp to 1.0% on April 13 as anticipated, with the balance sheet wind-down to commence next week. The meeting also saw an upwards revision of 1.1bp to 5.3% y/y for the 2022 inflation output.

Thursday: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (1500 BST)

The April flash will highlight a stabilisation albeit at highly pessimistic levels, of confidence in the region following the shock of the Ukraine invasion. Analysts are looking for a small decline to -20.0 from -18.7 previously.

As inflation worries run high and consumers feel the squeeze of Russian oil sanctions, the focus here will be on whether consumers believe the situation will not worsen and begin to shift towards sunnier outlooks for months ahead.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
19/04/2022	0430/1330	**		JP	Industrial production
19/04/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta in IMF/World Bank Meetings
19/04/2022	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
19/04/2022	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
19/04/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
19/04/2022	1300/0900	*		CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
19/04/2022	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
19/04/2022	1605/1205			US	Chicago Fed's Charles Evans
20/04/2022	2350/0850	**		JP	Trade
19/04/2022	0000/2000			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
20/04/2022	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/04/2022	0845/0945			UK	BOE Mutton Panelist on Central Bank Digital Currencies
20/04/2022	0900/1100	**		EU	industrial production
20/04/2022	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
20/04/2022	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
20/04/2022	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
20/04/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta in IMF/World Bank Meetings
20/04/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta at G7 &G20 Finance Ministers' Meetings
20/04/2022	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
20/04/2022	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
20/04/2022	1430/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
20/04/2022	1430/1030			US	Chicago Fed's Charles Evans
20/04/2022	1430/1030			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
20/04/2022	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
20/04/2022	1700/1300			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
20/04/2022	1800/1400			US	FOMC Beige Book
21/04/2022	2245/1045	***		NZ	CPI inflation quarterly