MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: Michigan Survey A Ukraine Gauge

UK Monthly GDP, IP, Manufacturing, Construction, Index of Services, Trade Balance (0700 GMT)

The UK economy is seen expanding by a modest 0.1% in January, but a robust performance from the auto industry suggests some upside risk to forecasts. This follows a -0.2% decline in December when the rapid spread of the Omicron Covid variant pushed many workers into isolation.

Industrial and manufacturing production are likely to see slow m/m growth rates again, forecasted to be at +0.1% m/m and +0.2% m/m respectively, stronger in the annualised reading(+1.9% y/y and +3.1% y/y) largely due to the reference period being in strict lockdown.

German and Spanish Final Inflation (0700 / 0800 GMT)

Today’s final inflation print is expected to confirm the February flash prints. German HICP is seen at +5.5% y/y and +0.9% m/m, whilst Spanish inflation sits higher at +7.5% y/y and +0.7% m/m in February.

Across both countries, energy prices continue to exert strong upward pressure, which is not seen subsiding in the near future due to added price pressure from the Ukraine crisis. Supply bottlenecks increasing input prices remain substantial, as well as food price growth.

Canada Labour Stats (1330 GMT)

Analysts are forecasting strong labour market data for today from Canada, which should highlight the recovery from the Omicron wave. The unemployment rate is seen stepping down to 6.2% in February from the surprisingly strong 0.5-point January rise to 6.5%. The net change in employment is expected to rise by 130k, from -200k in January, with the most recent surveys hinting at an upside surprise.

This will be positive news for the BOC, which began its tightening cycle at the end of January with a 25bp hike to 0.5%. With the next BOC meeting taking place in mid-April, stagflationary risks from the Ukraine invasion will be the key driver of any policy adjustments.

US University of Michigan Sentiment (1500 GMT)

The Michigan survey is expected to see a weakening across the board in economic sentiment, current conditions and expectations in the March flash reading, in a continuation of the downwards reversal in January.

Markets will place strong significance on this data as it will be the first glimpse at economic sentiment in response to the Ukraine war.

Source: Bloomberg / MNI

ECB President Lagarde will be taking part in an informal European Commission meeting today (no event link available).

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
11/03/2022	0700/0800	***		DE	HICP (f)
11/03/2022	0700/0700	**		UK	UK monthly GDP
11/03/2022	0700/0700	**		UK	Index of Services
11/03/2022	0700/0700	***		UK	Index of Production
11/03/2022	0700/0700	**		UK	Output in the Construction Industry
11/03/2022	0700/0700	**		UK	Trade Balance
11/03/2022	0800/0900	***		ES	HICP (f)
11/03/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde at informal European Council Meeting
11/03/2022	1330/0830	**		CA	Capacity Utilization
11/03/2022	1330/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
11/03/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Household debt-to-disposable income
11/03/2022	1500/1000	***		US	University of Michigan Sentiment Index (p)
11/03/2022	1500/1000	*		US	Services Revenues