Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Wednesday’s key data released are the UK’s March inflation report and The BoC’s interest rate decision.
UK March Inflation (0700 BST)
UK CPI is projected to accelerate to 6.7% y/y in March, a sharp increase from the 6.2% y/y in February, the highest level since March 1992. The month-on-month pace is expected to remain at +0.8% in March.
A surge in fuel costs suggests upside risk to the consensus forecast. Core inflation is expected to rise more moderately, to 5.3% from 5.2%, the record-high a month earlier.
RPI is seen quickening 0.6pp to +8.8% y/y. The BOE March hike was a dovish 0.25bp coupled with expectations of inflation around 8.0% y/y in Q2 with no peak projection. As such a CPI uptick to +6.7% y/y would remain in line with the BOE’s policy trajectory ahead of the May 5 meeting.
Spanish March Final Inflation (0800 BST)
Following yesterday’s confirmation of German HICP at +7.6% y/y, Spanish inflation is seen confirming an acceleration of +9.8% y/y and +3.9% m/m.
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (1500 BST)
The BoC will likely raise its key lending rate by 50bp to 1.0%, with inflation expected to remain above 3.0% for the next two years. Balance sheet runoff of maturing assets may also be on the cards.
With Canadian inflation running hot at +5.7% y/y in pre-Ukraine war February, of particular focus will be the new forecasts and signals for another 50bp hike at the June 1 meeting. Governor Mecklem will be keenly watched for shifts towards more aggressive or flexible rhetoric.
For more insight see theMNI state-of-play.
Today’s key policymaker schedule is relatively light with just Richmond Fed's Thomas Barkin of note. The BOC press conference will be held at 1600 BST. Links are available in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 13/04/2022 | 0200/1400 | *** |  | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 13/04/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Consumer inflation report |
| 13/04/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Producer Prices |
| 13/04/2022 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (f) |
| 13/04/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Industrial Production |
| 13/04/2022 | 0830/0930 | * | | UK | ONS House Price Index |
| 13/04/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 13/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 13/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | | CA | BOC Monetary Policy Report | |
| 13/04/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 13/04/2022 | 1500/1100 | | CA | BOC Governor Press Conference | |
| 13/04/2022 | 1630/1230 | | US | Richmond Fed's Thomas Barkin | |
| 13/04/2022 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.