Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Monday's data calendar is very light with US markets being closed for the Martin Luther King Day break, so the Global Briefing offers insight into key data points over coming days, with important data releases due in the UK and Germany.
Tuesday 17th
UK Labour Report – Labour Market to Remain Strong (0700 GMT)
Tuesday sees the release of the UK labour market report, with some of the indicators highlighting the effect of the early stages of omicron wave in the UK, although a further 150,000 payrolled employees are expected to have been added.
Analysts are predicting a more moderate reduction of 36,000 jobless claims in November -- the data runs a month later -- following a strong reduction of 49800 in October.
The ILO three-month unemployment rate is forecasted stabilise at 4.2% in the November reading, edging closer to the pre-pandemic February 2020 rate of 4.0%.
ZEW sentiment seen higher (1000 GMT)
The ZEW expected conditions are forecasted to come in more optimistic for January, recovering to around the pre-pandemic level at 33.4, up from 29.9 in December. The current conditions index dipped into negative at -7.4 in December, the first time since June 2021. The index is expected to slide further to -12.0 for January with analysts seeing current economic conditions as deteriorating.
Supply chain disruptions, surging inflation and the omicron wave of the pandemic continue to exert substantial downwards pressure on the German economy, which is expected to have contracted by as much as 1% in Q4 of 2021.
Wednesday 18th
UK CPI to Climb Further (0700 GMT)
UK headline inflation is projected to grow on the annualised reading, albeit dampening on the month again. Headline CPI is set to rise to 5.3% y/y in December following the 0.9pt jump to 5.1% y/y in November, however core CPI is predicted to steady at November’s 4.0%.
This slight moderation in inflation could prove a promising sign ahead of the BoE’s February 3 meeting, where markets are pricing a strong possibility of a hike following December’s 15 bps hike to 0.25%.
German Final Inflation to Confirm Near 40-year High (0700 GMT)
Analysts are expecting headline inflation for Germany to remain in line with forecasts at 5.3% y/y in the final December reading, just above 5.2% y/y in November. After contracting in November by 0.2% m/m, inflation is set to rise by 0.5% m/m again.
With the ECB likely to only begin hiking in early 2023, the German economy sees little relief in upcoming months.
Today just had one key policy maker appearance: the ECB's President Lagarde and executive board member Panetta at the Eurogroup meeting. Calendar links to speeches will be updated where available.
For an overview of the latest data forecasts click here.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 17/01/2022 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Retail Sales |
| 17/01/2022 | 0200/1000 | *** | | CN | Industrial Output |
| 17/01/2022 | 0200/1000 | *** | | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 17/01/2022 | 0200/1000 | *** | | CN | GDP |
| 17/01/2022 | 0200/1000 | ** | | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate |
| 17/01/2022 | - |  | EU | ECB Lagarde & Panetta Eurogroup Meeting | |
| 17/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | * |  | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/01/2022 | 1400/0900 | * | | CA | Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association) |
| 18/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 18/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 18/01/2022 | - | | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 18/01/2022 | 1315/0815 | ** | | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 18/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 18/01/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 18/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 18/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 18/01/2022 | 2100/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
| 19/01/2022 | 0001/0001 | * | | UK | XpertHR Pay Deals for Whole Economy |
| 19/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | *** | | DE | HICP (f) |
| 19/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Producer Prices |
| 19/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Consumer Inflation Report |
| 19/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/01/2022 | 0930/0930 | * | | UK | ONS House Price Index |
| 19/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Construction Production |
| 19/01/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA weekly applications index |
| 19/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | CA | CPI |
| 19/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 19/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Housing starts |
| 19/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.