Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday’s focus will be the BOE’s interest rate decision at 1200 BST. European construction PMIs are also due this morning, with US trade and jobless data due in the afternoon.
Eurozone Construction PMIs (0830/0930 BST)
Both Euro area and UK construction sectors are anticipated to see a slowdown in the July PMIs, whereby the eurozone will likely see a its third month in contraction, edging down further from 47.0 recorded in June. The UK PMI appears somewhat more robust and is expected to slow 0.6-points to 52.0.
Construction industries have been substantially hampered by the effects of the war in Ukraine including persistent supply shortages and growing global price pressures (albeit these beginning to ease). This in conjunction with falling demand saw new orders and output fall in recent months.
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (1200 BST)
The MNI markets team sees a 70% probability of a 50bp hike today following Governor Bailey’s Mansion House speech and June CPI jump to a (modelled) 40-year high at 9.4% y/y. If executed, this hawkish pivot is in line with the recent shift by the ECB and other major central banks in recent months. Additional focus will be on updated guidance on how -- and when -- the BOE expects to manage active gilt sales.
See our in-depth previewhere.
US Trade Balance (1330 BST)
The US trade deficit is projected to narrow by around $5.5bln to -$80.0bln in June, on the back of exports boosted by energy exports. This is a further improvement on the record $109.8bln deficit recorded in March.
US Initial Jobless Claims (1330 BST)
Ahead of Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow, the weekly US jobless claims report is due, with initial and continuing claims likely to show signs of creeping up, pointing to a cooling labour market.
At present, a 250k uptick in nonfarm payrolls is pencilled in for July, softening from 372k in June and leaving the unemployment rate stable at 3.6%. Despite disappointing July PMIs including a surprise service-sector contraction, the resilience of the labour market will again underpin confidence in the upcoming September hike. The Fed will be closely watching for further downside risks in upcoming data which could make a 75bp hike less likely, as Chicago Fed Chair Charles Evans noted Tuesday.
Key events on Thursday’s schedule are the ECB August Economic Bulletin, the BOE Press Conference at 1230 BST and Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester’s fireside chat in the evening.
Source: MNI / Bloomberg
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 04/08/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04/08/2022 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04/08/2022 | 0800/1000 | | EU | ECB August Economic Bulletin | |
| 04/08/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/08/2022 | 1100/1200 | *** | | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 04/08/2022 | 1130/1230 | | UK | BOE Press Conference | |
| 04/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Building Permits |
| 04/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 04/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 04/08/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 04/08/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 04/08/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 04/08/2022 | 1600/1200 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.