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EMERGING MARKETS: Global News: December 18

EMERGING MARKETS
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • US (MNI) – The latest unemployment and inflation data have kept the FOMC on track to cut the federal funds rate by 25bp, but macro and political developments have heightened uncertainty over its next moves. With the unemployment rate likely to undershoot September’s median projection along with core PCE inflation and GDP growth overshooting, the FOMC will undoubtedly signal a more cautious approach to easing. This will be communicated most clearly in the updated Dot Plot, which is set to show 75bp of cuts in 2025.
  • US (WSJ) – Congressional leaders reached a bipartisan deal Tuesday to keep the government funded through mid-March and provide more than $100bn in relief to disaster victims and farmers, but the sprawling nature of the package angered some House Republicans. The legislation was released just days ahead of Friday’s deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown.
  • EU (MNI) – Following the conclusion of ECB Chief Economist Lane's speech at today's MNI Webcast, the initial reaction is there is little that is new relative to the previous ECB communique. "The incoming information and the latest staff projections indicate that the disinflation process remains well on track." "Looking to the future, in the current environment of elevated uncertainty, it is prudent to maintain agility on a meeting-by-meeting basis and not pre-commit to any particular rate path."
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  • US (MNI) – The latest unemployment and inflation data have kept the FOMC on track to cut the federal funds rate by 25bp, but macro and political developments have heightened uncertainty over its next moves. With the unemployment rate likely to undershoot September’s median projection along with core PCE inflation and GDP growth overshooting, the FOMC will undoubtedly signal a more cautious approach to easing. This will be communicated most clearly in the updated Dot Plot, which is set to show 75bp of cuts in 2025.
  • US (WSJ) – Congressional leaders reached a bipartisan deal Tuesday to keep the government funded through mid-March and provide more than $100bn in relief to disaster victims and farmers, but the sprawling nature of the package angered some House Republicans. The legislation was released just days ahead of Friday’s deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown.
  • EU (MNI) – Following the conclusion of ECB Chief Economist Lane's speech at today's MNI Webcast, the initial reaction is there is little that is new relative to the previous ECB communique. "The incoming information and the latest staff projections indicate that the disinflation process remains well on track." "Looking to the future, in the current environment of elevated uncertainty, it is prudent to maintain agility on a meeting-by-meeting basis and not pre-commit to any particular rate path."