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CANADA: Global News-Trudeau To Shuffle Cabinet 20 Dec

CANADA
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Global News reports that PM Justin Trudeau is set to shuffle his Cabinet tomorrow (Friday 20 December). This follows a tumultuous week for the PM in which his long-serving finance minister and deputy PM Chrystia Freeland resigned, publishing a scathing letter that criticised the gov'ts economic policies in the face of potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration in the US. 

  • New Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc is currently speaking at a presser (live stream here).
  • A shuffled cabinet could be interpreted as a sign of Trudeau trying to stabilise his position as Liberal Party leader and PM. Carlene Variyan, a former senior Liberal staffer, said to Global News: "Trudeau should not wait [to shuffle the Cabinet]. “If he can bring that renewed sense of stability and being in control of his government…he has a real shot of being able to hold the government together until spring,” she said. Otherwise, caucus members and cabinet ministers could start “peeling off much earlier than that” and parliament could collapse “not long after they come back at the end of January.”
  • Betting markets continue to see Trudeau's premiership as vulnerable, but not mortally wounded. Data from Polymarket shows a 44% implied probability the PM loses a confidence vote before April. Of course, there is also the prospect Trudeau is ousted by his own Liberal party rather than the Commons. If the Cabinet reshuffle is not well received, the latter scenario could become more likely than the former. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability, 'Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?', %

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Global News reports that PM Justin Trudeau is set to shuffle his Cabinet tomorrow (Friday 20 December). This follows a tumultuous week for the PM in which his long-serving finance minister and deputy PM Chrystia Freeland resigned, publishing a scathing letter that criticised the gov'ts economic policies in the face of potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration in the US. 

  • New Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc is currently speaking at a presser (live stream here).
  • A shuffled cabinet could be interpreted as a sign of Trudeau trying to stabilise his position as Liberal Party leader and PM. Carlene Variyan, a former senior Liberal staffer, said to Global News: "Trudeau should not wait [to shuffle the Cabinet]. “If he can bring that renewed sense of stability and being in control of his government…he has a real shot of being able to hold the government together until spring,” she said. Otherwise, caucus members and cabinet ministers could start “peeling off much earlier than that” and parliament could collapse “not long after they come back at the end of January.”
  • Betting markets continue to see Trudeau's premiership as vulnerable, but not mortally wounded. Data from Polymarket shows a 44% implied probability the PM loses a confidence vote before April. Of course, there is also the prospect Trudeau is ousted by his own Liberal party rather than the Commons. If the Cabinet reshuffle is not well received, the latter scenario could become more likely than the former. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability, 'Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?', %

Keep reading...Show less