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Global Oil Demand Growth to Slow to 1.3% in 2024: HSBC

OIL

Global oil demand growth is expected to almost halve in 2024 to 1.3%, slowing further to 0.9% in 2025 as demand normalises from its post Covid-10 recovery in China, while the transport electrification is weighing on oil demand, HSBC said in a note.

  • The bank forecasts Brent crude to average $82.5/bbl in 2024 and $76.5/bbl in 2025.
  • Oil prices are trading range bound currently as OPEC+ has limited room for manoeuvre in 2024, while demand growth normalises and non-OPEC supply growth remains strong, the bank said.
  • The latest round of OPEC+ cuts should be sufficient to keep the oil market in deficit through 2024 but the bank doubts that OPEC would further want to cut production levels. Instead, the bank expects Saudi Arabia to start unwinding its 1mbd voluntary cut in 2Q 2024, but the bulk of OPEC+ cuts is likely to remain in place until year-end.
  • US oil production growth is expected to slow to 0.5mbpd this year, from 1.5mbpd last year. Growth could then accelerate in 2025 driven by productivity improvements and economies of scale emerging from the current wave of consolidation in the US shale patch, the bank said.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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